Pinnacle +17½ -108  BET365  +17½ -110 Sportsinteraction  +17½ -110  888Sport  +17½ -110

Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Duke +17½ over Ole Miss

EverBank Stadium – Jacksonville, FL

Gator Bowl

7:30 PM ET. Two prevailing storylines dominate this bowl game: Malik Murphy’s transfer portal announcement and Lane Kiffin’s ever-active social media presence. First, there’s the news of Duke’s quarterback, Malik Murphy, departing for Oregon State. The Blue Devils will also be without standout running back Star Jones. As with many bowl games this season, high-profile player opt-outs have resulted in market adjustments, often translating to value opportunities. Meanwhile, Ole Miss will be without star wideout Tre Harris, but this fact has been largely overshadowed due to the Rebels’ reputation and higher profile.

Then there’s the Twitter antics of Lane Kiffin. The Ole Miss coach has been vocal about his team’s snub from the College Football Playoff, criticizing the committee’s decisions and drumming up narratives that the Rebels will use this game to make a statement. However, such motivation is speculative at best. Duke, seeking their 10th win of the season, has just as much reason to bring their best effort.

Duke’s offensive losses, while noteworthy, are less impactful than they seem. Even with Murphy and Jones, Duke’s offense was middling at best, ranking 107th in total offense (341.5 yards per game) and 79th in scoring (26.7 points per game). The Blue Devils’ true strength lies in their defense, which ranks 12th nationally in yards per play allowed (4.7) and gives up just 22 points per game (42nd in FBS). Their pass rush is particularly elite, ranking third in sacks per game (3.7), which could disrupt Ole Miss’ high-powered offense.

Ole Miss’ defense is formidable as well, leading the nation in sacks and excelling in scoring and total defense metrics. But with Duke’s offense never being a significant threat to begin with, this game sets up as a defensive battle. Asking Ole Miss to cover a massive number in this scenario is a stretch.

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