Pinnacle -102  BET365  -110 Sportsinteraction  -110  888Sport  -110

Posted Janulary 1 at 10:30 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Georgia -102 over Notre Dame

Thursday, January 2, 2025

Caesars Superdome – New Orleans, LA

Allstate Sugar Bowl – College Football Playoff Quarterfinal

8:45 PM ET. The market loves Notre Dame, and why wouldn’t it? The Irish are 11-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, one of the most profitable sides in college football. Compare that to Georgia, who comes in at 4-9 ATS, and the contrast couldn’t be starker. This discrepancy alone tells us that the Bulldogs are being undervalued here, as the market perception heavily leans toward Notre Dame’s “reliability” as a cover machine.

Then there’s the quarterback narrative. The market is fading Georgia largely because of questions surrounding Gunner Stockton, who stepped in after Carson Beck’s injury. Stockton is perceived as untested, but this isn’t some backup plucked off the bench—he’s a five-star talent who many Dawgs fans were clamoring for when Beck hit rough patches earlier in the season. Stockton showed his mettle when he led Georgia to a comeback win over Texas, and he has the tools and poise to handle the moment.

Schedule strength also tilts heavily in Georgia’s favor. The Dawgs navigated the toughest schedule in the nation, with their only blemish coming in Oxford against Ole Miss—a loss sandwiched between rivalry games. Meanwhile, Notre Dame feasted on a weak slate, highlighted (or lowlighted) by a loss to Northern Illinois. The Irish have been beneficiaries of favorable matchups all season, and their numbers are inflated because of it.

Notre Dame’s thrashing of Indiana in the first round of the playoffs has also sent their stock soaring, but a deeper look reveals that result wasn’t as dominant as it seemed. A 14-point swing early in that game—on an Indiana interception in the Notre Dame red zone followed by a 99-yard touchdown return—completely flipped the script. Had that sequence gone differently, the Irish might not even be here.

Finally, we cannot ignore the public sentiment. Notre Dame has become a trendy underdog, and when the public dog barks, it’s often wise to tread carefully. Public dogs usually come with overvalued narratives, and this one is no exception. However, this isn’t just a “fade the market” play—it’s a calculated position on a team built to rise to the occasion.

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