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Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Iowa State +170 over Miami

Camping World Stadium – Orlando, FL

Pop-Tarts Bowl

3:30 PM ET. What’s your favorite flavor of Pop-Tarts? The chatter around this game has been dominated by fluff like that, as the media indulges in branding over analysis. While Heisman finalist Cam Ward humored reporters with his pastry preferences (Wild Berry, by the way, is objectively the best), we're here to chew on something more substantial: value.

The market is infatuated with Miami, fueled by nostalgia for “The U” and the belief that they’ll “get right” after an embarrassing collapse against Syracuse that torched their playoff dreams. But narratives don’t win football games, and the Hurricanes' 10-2 record is as flimsy as a stale toaster pastry. Miami should’ve lost to Virginia Tech (Hail Mary fail), needed divine intervention to escape Cal, and barely edged out Louisville. When they finally faced adversity, they folded like cheap lawn chairs, losing to both Georgia Tech and Syracuse.

On the other sideline, Iowa State got blown out in the Big 12 title game against Arizona State, but context matters. A disastrous third quarter sank them, but if you remove that 21-0 stretch, the Cyclones were right there. Costly turnovers and penalties derailed what was otherwise a competitive effort. This is a disciplined, scrappy team that wants to finish strong.

Miami’s inconsistency and lack of focus make them dangerous to back as chalk. Iowa State, meanwhile, thrives as an underdog. The Cyclones have faced some of the toughest schedules in college football, including a November stretch featuring Kansas—who terrorized ranked teams—and came out battle-tested. Motivated, overlooked, and fundamentally sound, Iowa State is live here.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 17 Points ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 17 Points ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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