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Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Arkansas State +9 over Bowling Green

Hancock Whitney Stadium – Mobile, AL

68 Ventures Bowl

9:00 PM ET. This number jumped off the page the moment it opened. Bowling Green went from being one of the feel-good stories of 2024 to having their hearts ripped out in a must-win game for the MAC Championship against Miami (OH). A spot in the title game was theirs for the taking, but a comprehensive beatdown at the hands of the RedHawks left them reeling. Now the Falcons are expected to regroup and cover a significant number against a team playing with house money. That’s a tall ask.

The Falcons are in a classic letdown spot. The loss to Miami (OH) wasn’t just a setback; it was a soul-crusher. They’ve had weeks to sit with that failure, and we’re betting that it lingers here. The market is giving Bowling Green the benefit of the doubt, perhaps because Arkansas State is an unfamiliar commodity. Most bettors couldn’t name the Red Wolves’ mascot, let alone their key players. That’s fine by us.

Arkansas State is dangerous in this spot. They’ve quietly put together a solid season, clawing their way back to bowl relevance after years in the wilderness. Last year’s Camellia Bowl loss was a bitter pill to swallow, but it fuels their motivation here. On the other hand, Bowling Green opened as a -6.5 favorite—a notoriously underdog-friendly number—and the line has moved against them. That movement speaks volumes about where the value lies.

BGSU’s profile as a favorite is shaky at best. Their offense is inconsistent, and their emotional state is a massive question mark. Meanwhile, Arkansas State has everything to play for: a chance to match their best win total in years and redeem last year’s heartbreak. We’ll gladly take the inflated points with the more motivated dog and won’t be surprised if Arkansas State pulls the outright upset.

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