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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

South Florida +127 ML over San Jose State

Clarence T. Ching Complex – Honolulu, HI

Hawaii Bowl

8:00 PM ET. South Florida comes into this bowl game as a forgotten team in the market, thanks to an embarrassing season-ending loss to Rice. Let’s set the stage: The Bulls were rolling, winning four of their last five games and posting a ridiculous 122 points combined in back-to-back wins over Tulsa and Charlotte. Those results put South Florida back on the market’s radar, but the context is important—both Tulsa and Charlotte are cupcakes, teams that anyone with a pulse can steamroll.

Then came the trip to Rice, where the Bulls were favored by 5½ points. Things went south quickly. USF trailed by 20 at the half, and any backers holding a Bulls ticket knew they were dead in the water. It’s the kind of loss that sticks in the minds of bettors, one that creates lingering distrust.

Meanwhile, San Jose State comes in fresh off an emotional 24-21 win over Stanford. The Spartans trailed late but pulled off a last-minute comeback to win and narrowly cover as 2½-point chalk. That win flipped the narrative for SJSU after they were featured on Scott Van Pelt’s Bad Beats segment two weeks prior for a heartbreaking loss. Now the market is overcompensating, aligning itself with the Spartans as the “safer” play.

Let’s pump the brakes on that narrative. While SJSU is basking in the glow of its latest win, South Florida’s loss to Rice wasn’t as terrible as it might seem. Sure, they were down big early, but USF didn’t quit. They clawed their way back and made it a game, closing the gap to seven points before running out of time. That second-half rally speaks volumes about this team’s motivation and fight. It also signals that South Florida isn’t just going through the motions—they want to finish their season strong.

The zig-zag factor is firmly in play here. Bowl games often feature one team coming off a high and another off a low. The market loves the high and fades the low, which creates tremendous value on the undervalued side. South Florida opened as a slight underdog, taking back less than a field goal, and that line speaks volumes. Oddsmakers are telling us this game is much closer than public perception suggests.

South Florida is the undervalued side with plenty of motivation, while San Jose State is riding a wave of recency bias after an emotional win. The Bulls have shown they’re not a team to roll over, and they’re in a prime spot to catch the Spartans sleeping. Bowl season is about identifying value where the market has overreacted, and this is one of those spots. We’ll gladly back South Florida at a generous price.

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