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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

North Dakota St +148 over South Dakota St

Fargodome – Fargo, ND

FCS Championship Semifinals

12:00 PM EST. We know what you are thinking: with two other College Football Playoff games to choose from, why dig deep into the FCS playoffs instead? However, where value is to be found, we move in. Such value can often be found in the most obscure locations, though a semifinal rematch of the Battle for the Dakota Marker is hardly out of the public spectrum. After all, this matchup has often played a pivotal role in crowning the eventual national champion, being played out in the playoffs five times in the last 12 years. It’s a feud steeped in acrimony dating back to 1903, with NDSU and SDSU sharing six of the last seven FCS championships. Enough of the prefaces—let’s dive in.

The Jackrabbits come into this game as back-to-back national champions, having navigated the FCS Playoff bracket successfully in 2022 and 2023. SDSU dethroned the Bison in 2021, taking over as the reigning powerhouse. The Jacks entered their annual regular-season melee this year on a five-game winning streak, including a rout in their January 2023 showdown with the Bison, where they defeated North Dakota State in Frisco, Texas, by over 20 points to capture another championship. This year, NDSU edged out the Jackrabbits 13-9 in a thrilling regular-season contest, breaking their drought against their archrivals. Now they meet again on an even grander stage.

The narrative surrounding this game: can South Dakota State complete the trifecta and avenge their regular-season heartbreak? Should the Jacks go on to win the championship, they would achieve rarefied air, joining Appalachian State and their rivals across the field in having won three consecutive titles. The market is heavily backing this narrative, hammering the Jacks from the time the line dropped, with the Bison taking back a modest 2.5 points. While we play numbers, not teams, the narratives here favor the underdog Bison. Playing at home in Fargo, being cast as underdogs doesn’t sit well with a program that views itself as the Alabama of FCS football. Bison outright.

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