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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

College Football Playoff First Round

Notre Dame Stadium – South Bend, IN

Indiana +6½ over Notre Dame

8:00 PM ET. It seems that every time one mentions Notre Dame and playoffs in the same sentence, images of the Gipper, Knute Rockne, Touchdown Jesus, and Rudy flood the minds of the public. The market is ready to pounce on the Fighting Irish, despite Notre Dame having failed to produce anything of substance in these types of games for over 30 years. The Golden Domers are indeed a public side, and one almost always pays a premium to wager on the Irish, especially in situations like this. However, Notre Dame, second only to Marshall (which seems to have disappeared into the transfer portal with Rod Serling) and Arizona State, has been the most profitable team to bet on in 2024. This success has only further inflated the premium.

Many talking heads have been touting Notre Dame as a potential national championship contender, and the market has responded enthusiastically. Indiana is being dismissed as a team with no chance of escaping South Bend with a win. Some have gone so far as to predict Notre Dame will go on to the Sugar Bowl, defeat Georgia, win the Cotton Bowl, and ultimately claim the gold at the end of the CFP rainbow. Yet, the Irish remain sixth overall in futures odds to win outright.

Not too long ago, the Hoosiers were one of the most talked-about teams in college football. They were the little engine that could, fighting their way into the spotlight and dismantling opponents along the way. That all changed, however, when IU made a November trip to The Horseshoe and saw its undefeated season dismantled by The Ohio State University. Since then, the market has dismissed this side, with some questioning whether the Hoosiers even deserve a playoff bid. But let us ask: who exactly has Notre Dame defeated this season to earn such acclaim? Army? (A team wrecked by Navy.) Navy? (A team hammered by Rice.) Purdue? (A 1-11 team.) Miami Ohio? (A team blown out in the MAC Championship.) Texas A&M? (Who lost to a four-win Auburn team.) USC? (Who barely made a bowl.) Florida State? (Arguably the biggest disappointment in college football history.) The list goes on.

Meanwhile, the Hoosiers have credible big-game experience. They competed toe-to-toe with Ohio State until special teams blunders ultimately let the game slip away. They also defeated Michigan, who incidentally beat Ohio State in The Horseshoe. And let’s not forget: this is the same Notre Dame team that lost in this very stadium to a 6-6 MAC team in early September. Northern Illinois, a 28-point underdog with “no shot,” blocked a Notre Dame field goal to secure the upset victory. There is no reason to believe Notre Dame is immune to trouble against the Hoosiers, and an upset is well within the realm of possibility. We’ll gladly take the points for insurance.

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