Pinnacle +6 +100 BET365 +6 -105 Sportsinteraction +6 -105 888Sport +6 -105

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cure Bowl Camping World Stadium – Orlando, FL

Jacksonville St +6 Ohio

12:00 PM ET. One could call this contest “The Our Head Coaches Left Town Bowl,” as both Tim Albin and Rich Rodriguez have taken up new coaching posts elsewhere, but that wouldn’t be entirely accurate. Instead, our focus is on the Bobcats, one of the hottest teams in college football against the spread. Ohio has won six straight, capping off this run with a dominant 35-3 victory over defending champion Miami Ohio in the MAC Championship. Against the Redhawks, few gave the Bobcats a chance, yet they defied expectations.

The market is now overreacting to Ohio’s recent form, leading to inflated prices. Ohio’s run against the spread began with a 47-16 rout of Buffalo as 3.5-point favorites (27.5-point margin of victory). This was followed by a 41-0 win at Kent as 20.5-point favorites (20.5-point margin), a 35-10 victory over EMU as 10.5-point favorites (14.5-point margin), a 24-7 win over Toledo as one-point underdogs (18-point ATS margin), a 42-21 win over Ball State as 17.5-point favorites (3.5-point margin), and finally, the aforementioned blowout of Miami Ohio as one-point underdogs (34-point margin). Teams that crush the spread like this are often due for a correction, particularly in a bowl game, where motivations and setups differ dramatically.

Ohio opened as a two-point favorite, but there has been heavy action on the Bobcats, driven by bettors chasing closing line value. This movement underscores one of the biggest mistakes in handicapping: overvaluing recent performance. A wager on Ohio here would mean buying into inflated points atop inflated points, falling victim to an overreaction, and betting into an enormous letdown spot.

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