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Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

West Virginia +209 ML over Memphis

Toyota Stadium – Frisco, TX

Frisco Bowl

9:00 PM ET. The coaching carousel is spinning, and West Virginia finds itself at the center of the action. After a disappointing tenure, Neal Brown is out, and the headline-stealing news is the return of Rich Rodriguez, the coach who once turned the Mountaineers into a powerhouse. On the surface, the optics are messy — a .500 West Virginia squad with instability on the sideline is up against a ranked Memphis team that ended Tulane’s College Football Playoff hopes on Thanksgiving. But dig deeper, and we see a market overreaction that has created massive value.

Memphis opened as a 2.5-point favorite, an underdog-friendly number that we zeroed in on immediately. The Tigers have had their moment in the spotlight after upsetting Tulane as a 13-point dog, but that result only amplifies the overvaluation here. Markets love to zig-zag, and after fading Memphis heavily in the Tulane spot, they’re now flocking back. It’s a classic overcorrection. Memphis was hunting in their previous role; now they’re the hunted, tasked with spotting a price to a live underdog.

West Virginia had this one circled before the Rich Rod storyline unfolded. The Mountaineers are still a gritty, physical team built to hang in bowl games. More importantly, Memphis will struggle to replicate their emotional high from the Tulane win. Football is an emotional sport, and asking a team to deliver consecutive performances at peak intensity is tough. Memphis is stepping into a “letdown” role while West Virginia, unranked and dismissed, brings maximum motivation to play spoiler.

Bowl games are about edges, and the market sentiment here is giving us one. West Virginia has the weapons to compete outright and the benefit of a refreshed locker room with something to prove. We’ll bypass the points entirely and back the Mountaineers to win this game outright.

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