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Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Michigan +14½ over Indiana

Memorial Stadium – Bloomington, IN

Streaming: CBS

3:30 PM EST. Now is the time of the year, when the feel-good stories and surprise teams start to make their presence felt in media blitzes and a deluge of betting tickets, this is especially the case after the initial College Football Playoff rankings are released. One will note that the Hoosiers are eighth in said rankings and many have argued that the Hoosiers are in fact underrated because they are not a “name-brand” school like that of one-loss outfits like Georgia, Ohio State, Penn State, Texas, and Tennessee who are ahead of IU though some would suggest that they should be as high as #2 or #3 in said poll. For many, this affair with the present defending national champion Michigan is an opportunity for Indiana to make a statement and when we consider that the market has heavily leaned into Indiana as one of the most wagered sides this week in all of the land, betting Indiana here is playing into the betting with one’s heart approach which we advise vehemently is a no-go.

Indiana has also been a success against the spread better than anyone else in the FBS as they are 8-1 against the number. Very simply, the more a team covers, the more one can expect to pay a premium to back them when they start to cash in like Indiana has throughout the 2024-25 season. However, the market cannot get enough of the Hoosiers, one can expect to lay inflated points upon inflated points here, even if it appears otherwise.

Despite all the bells and whistles, Michigan opened as low as an 11.5-point underdog and are now taking back an additional field goal due to the one-sided action on Indiana. This is value in itself but lets not forget that the team subjected to said equity is a team that many liked to reappear in the Playoff when asked in the preseason. It’s Michigan, for goodness sake but for the first time, Michigan is truly off the radar, as there is no pathway back to the postseason for the Maize and Blue, so the only way now to insert themselves into the conversation is to wreak havoc on an upstart like Indiana whose playoff hopes can actually be disheveled with a loss here, since a second loss to Ohio State in Columbus (which is likely) would derail any hopes of a postseason bid.

Make no mistake, Michigan can also cause trouble because when we hold up the strength of schedules of both parties, there is no contest there. Michigan has played a much more rugged itinerary that includes #1 Oregon, at Illinois, Texas (who was #1 at one point this season), Minnesota, USC (who was ranked at the time), and at Washington (a notoriously tough place to play against a team with a score to settle). Indeed, Indiana has dominated every thing that has been put in front of them but who exactly is on that list that is so qualitative? Indiana’s best win on paper is a 56-7 drubbing of Nebraska (who incidentally lost to a one-win UCLA in Lincoln) and their toughest road game was at Michigan State: not exactly, a Murderer’s Row of College Football. Sure, Indiana may win and cover here but a wager on them is arriving weeks too late to the Hoosiers green-up extravaganza. Grab the points.

Sherwood

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