Pinnacle -10 -102 ET365 -10 -105 Sportsinteraction -10 -105 888Sport -10 -105

Posted at 2:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Sam Houston -10 over Louisiana Tech

Elliott T. Bowers Stadium, Huntsville, TX

Streaming: ESPNU

8:00 PM EST. “Sticking with it” is one of our criteria when mining for value because it is a strategy that is not easy to employ; it involves backing a team that burned you in their last game. In this case, it is the Bearkats of Sam Houston State that put a dent in our bankrolls after they failed to cover the -5 points they were spotting at FIU at kickoff. That line actually opened as high as -7 points, but that number was driven down by the market, which then feasted. The Bearkats have now failed to cash a ticket in two straight weeks, which is a big reason why this line is coming down after the market bit on the hook, as this game opened with Sam Houston State as 10½-point chalk.

This play has little to do with Louisiana Tech, but we’ll note that this is a tough spot for the Bulldogs, who are coming off a 14-10 win over UTEP last Tuesday night. LaTech has now won two of its last three games, but they catch the Bearkats after a bad loss to Western Kentucky in their last home game in Week 7 and that lackluster 10-7 win at FIU last week. However, prior to that, Sam Houston State had gone on a 4-0 run Against the Spread. What would this line tonight be like if those good times had kept going? Five weeks ago, the Bearkats were a -15-point choice over New Mexico State, who are comparable to the Bulldogs. That’s a five-point gap and a market inefficiency that we are going to try to take advantage of. The Bearkats are short-priced at home against a toothless invader. Let’s eat. Swallow the points.

Sherwood

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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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