Pinnacle +119 ET365 +115 Sportsinteraction +115 888Sport +115

Posted at 3:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Akron +119 over Eastern Michigan

InfoCision Stadium at Summa Field – Akron, OH

Streaming: ESPN+

3:30 PM EST. Eastern Michigan is 4-0 straight up against Akron in its last four meetings while going 3-0-1 against the spread (ATS) over those four games. On the year, Eastern Michigan is 5-2 overall and 6-1 against the number. Akron is 1-6 overall and 2-5 against the spread. Every trend and statistic that would render the Eagles to be spotting an inflated tag to Akron is on the table here and yet EMU is not even being trusted to spot the Zips a field goal? Who wouldn’t bet them? The answer it seems is virtually no one, as the market has been engulfing itself with Eastern Michigan tickets and that, friends is a massive warning sign.

Make no mistake, Akron’s overall profile is not one to marvel in but it is worth taking a closer look at who they lost to and how they lost. Outside of FCS Colgate (The Zips’ only win) in non-conference play, Akron played then #2 Ohio State in The Horseshoe to kick off their season, square off with a Rutgers team from the B1G that got off to a 4-0 start, and head to Columbia, South Carolina to face the Gamecocks who could easily be a one-loss team with a top-15 ranking had two bounces gone their way. Those three losses cumulatively speaking would be considered an honor for a MAC team and by no means were the Zips expected to be remotely competitive in any of those games.

Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan played St. Francis (FCS), Jacksonville State, UMass, and Washington, a far more negotiable set of non-conference foes. Eastern Michigan overall has played the 127th-ranked strength of schedule and that is why they were set up for success and even then, two of their five wins were decided by a combined seven points.

In MAC Play, Akron’s three losses were quite deceptive. In their most recent defeat against Western Michigan, the Zips led by 17 on the road before they ultimately fell by 10. Against Bowling Green the week before, Akron led in the fourth quarter but the Falcons managed to escape in a 27-20 victory. On September 28th, Akron was deadlocked with Ohio into the fourth quarter before one bad frame resulted in a 20-point defeat for Akron.

This is a clear cut case of the market, not the oddsmakers, understanding that Akron is far better than their record indicates. This is a clear cut case of the market putting emphasis on wins and losses above all. The Zips are primed to win outright, as they take a step down in class from a bunch of teams that they competed against and nearly beat. We could infer with all of the moving parts in play that the wrong side is in fact favored even if Eastern Michigan looks like this week’s steal. Zips straight up.

Sherwood

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