Pinnacle -1 -110  ET365 -1 -110 Sportsinteraction -1 -110 888Sport -1 -110

Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Western Michigan -1 over Buffalo

UB Stadium – Buffalo, NY

Streaming: ESPN+

3:30 PM EST. When we look at the menu each week, we try to look for a number that sticks out or a figure that the market is reacting strongly towards, both of which apply here. The Bulls have received a lot of love from the market as a home dog but the line itself has not moved all week, hovering in between -1.0 and -1.5 depending on where one does their business. Despite the surge of action on Buffalo, the line has not flipped or crossed over and this resonates with us, as it suggests that the oddsmakers are taking a clear position on the guest.

We are truly scratching our heads at this one, as Buffalo’s most recent win last week was a 30-15 victory over Toledo, who is regarded by many as the class of the MAC. As a 10.5-point underdog, the Bulls would cruise onward to victory in Buffalo where they led by as much as 23 at one point. When we couple this result with the fact that the Bulls knocked off a ranked Northern Illinois earlier this season, who came to town after they pulled a historic upset at Notre Dame, we ask how on earth is Buffalo not favored here against Western Michigan who’s best win came against either Akron or Ball State? Also, if we throw in that the Broncos are 2-4 against the number while Buffalo is 4-2 against the spread, our suspicions increase even more. If we had to identify what could be the rudiments of a sucker bet, this would be it, as the market is presented with a number that makes no sense and it is being offered at the perfect time, such as in the wake of a huge win against a conference power.

Despite the impressive overtime win against NIU and the dominant showing against Toledo, Buffalo has demonstrated an ability to lay an egg. On September 28th, the Bulls were smoked 47-3 at the hands of UConn where the Bulls gave up 557 yards of total offense and accounted for less than 200 yards from scrimmage themselves. That result came right after the Bulls defeated Northern Illinois in the week prior in overtime. The aforementioned outcome also preceded the Toledo victory which Buffalo had two weeks to prepare for. Thus, it could be inferred that the Rockets took Buffalo lightly and the Bulls used their bye to get right and the rest is history. We can also derive that the Bulls caught Northern Illinois at the right time in an obvious letdown spot. This price strongly suggests that the Buffalo team that took the field against UConn is what Western Michigan will be up against, which is especially good news for the Broncos as they figure to be focused and bringing their A-game.

Sherwood

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