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Posted at 2:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Fresno State -3 over Nevada

Mackay Stadium - Reno, NV

Streaming: CBS Sportsnet

10:30 PM EST. Fresno State’s season was thrown a curveball before it even began when head coach Jeff Tedford stepped down due to health concerns, but interim coach Tim Skipper has held things together. The Bulldogs sit at 3-3, and while on paper that doesn’t look like much, those losses came to Michigan, UNLV, and Washington State—three teams with a combined 14-4 record.

Fresno State’s offense has sputtered a bit in recent weeks, failing to score more than 20 points in back-to-back games, but there’s no denying the firepower they have. Quarterback Mikey Keene (1,576 passing yards, 8 TDs) came into the year as one of the top passers in the Mountain West, and while his eight picks in six games leave something to be desired, but tonight he faces Nevada which is ranked 105th nationally in defensive pass success rate. Keene has the weapons to exploit the Wolf Pack’s secondary, with Mac Dalena, Jalen Moss, and Raylen Sharpe all combining for nearly 80 catches this season.

Defensively, Fresno State has quietly held its own, despite allowing UNLV to rack up over 8 yards per play a few weeks back. Outside of that, the Bulldogs have limited opponents to 5.2 yards a snap, and they’ve only given up more than 31 points once this season. That’s going to be a problem for a Nevada offense that relies on its ground game to get things going, but Fresno State’s rush defense has been stingy, holding five of its first six opponents to under 150 yards rushing.

Finally, Nevada is 5-2 Against the Spread (ATS) while the Bulldogs are 3-3, which makes this a “buy low, sell high” situation based on those surface results. The Bulldogs are coming off two straight losses and the Wolf Pack coming off three straight trips to the pay window. Those recent results loom large here in a stand alone prime time game that will be the last of tonight’s slate. There is just as much value to be had in a short price favorite as there is in a pooch and the Bulldogs fit that bill.

Sherwood

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