Pinnacle -7½ -106  ET365 -7½ -110 Sportsinteraction -7½ -110 888Sport -7½ -110

Posted at 1:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Virginia Tech -7½ over Boston College

Lane Stadium - Blacksburg, VA

Streaming: ESPN

7:30 PM EST. Our goal as handicappers is to derive which team holds the higher stock in a given contest and how that stock can influence market perception. We have written previously about the market’s emphasis on meaningless narratives, trends, and results without considering the ingredients. As such, we are presented with an opportunity here with the Hokies.

Boston College was once ranked this season and yes, they did manage to beat Florida State in Tallahassee before it was revealed that the Seminoles suffered from one of the greatest cases of imposter syndrome in college football history. Boston College also took a top-10 ranked Missouri the distance in Columbia. However, Mizzou was also exposed at the hands of Texas A&M two weeks ago yet the market is seemingly still hanging on these facts, as they are far more palatable compared to a Virginia Tech team who sits at 3-3 and whose best win of the year at the moment came against Marshall. Nevertheless, if we take a closer look at both parties, it would reveal that Virginia Tech could easily be a one-loss team ranked in the Top 25 while Boston College could be 2-4, had the bounces gone in opposing directions for either side.

Virginia Tech started off their season with an overtime loss at Vanderbilt but the Hokies rallied from 17 down only to fall by way of an incomplete pass in the back of the end zone. Such a result should have aged well, as Vanderbilt was the same team who knocked off #1 Alabama two weeks ago. Tech also was victim to controversial officiating when a converted Hail Mary should have sent Virginia Tech back to Blacksburg with a win over a top-10 ranked Miami only to see the call reversed. Va Tech was a 17½-point pooch v Miami and lost by four. Against an undefeated Rutgers, Virginia Tech lost by a field goal. In their three wins against Stanford, Old Dominion, and Marshall, the Hokies won by no less than 17 points. In a nutshell, Va Tech has been in every game it lost and dominated in every game it has won, and could easily be 5-1 at minimum.

Though they dominated Florida State, Boston College could have easily lost against the likes of Western Kentucky and Michigan State, as they trailed in both games late into the fourth quarter until they would escape by a combined five points in both games. Eagles’ starting QB Thomas Castellanos missed the one-point win over Western Kentucky, and was shaky in his return last week against the Cavaliers. BC jumped out to a 14-0 lead and did not score over the last 43 minutes. Had things not gone the Eagles’ way, they wouldn’t have a winning record. The subtleties and variances in games make an enormous difference but had Virginia Tech more bounces their way every and Boston College received less, we’d see the Hokies spotting a lot more wood here than they are. Underlay.

Sherwood

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