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Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Washington -1½ over Michigan

Husky Stadium, Seattle, WA

Streaming: NBC/Peacock

7:30 PM EST. This line opened with the Huskies favored by as much as -3 earlier this week, but the "efficient market" has taken a stand in this game and is pounding the Wolverines in this rematch of last year’s National Championship game. We’ll start with Michigan, as it comes into this game at 4-1 after holding on to beat Minnesota (27-24) last Saturday. While the Wolverines are off to a fine start, this is a one-dimensional team, as their passing attack under QB Alex Orji is as limp as they come. All Michigan can do is run the ball, and to be frank, it can’t do that very well either, ranking 52nd in the nation in Rush Success Rate. Running the rock is fine when playing from ahead, but what happens if the Wolverines go down in this game? They are ill-equipped to fight back, as we saw when they played Texas, where the Wolverines were down 24-3 at halftime and could barely close the gap despite the Longhorns taking their foot off the gas.

In their three games against USC, Minnesota, and Texas, all three teams posted a positive Expected Points Added (EPA) on the ground, and they all forced the Wolverine offense to consistently go three-and-out. The Michigan defense did not break vs. the Trojans and Golden Gophers, but that wasn’t from a lack of trying, as both of those schools marched up and down the field. In the USC game, the Trojans had 283 passing yards to Michigan’s 32, while Minnesota posted 258 passing yards to the Wolverines' 86. Hell, even Arkansas State outdueled Michigan in the air with 222 passing yards to 134.

We get that Washington is just 3-2, but its losses at least came against a rival in Wazzu, who is ranked 54th, and Rutgers, who is ranked 45th. Furthermore, the Huskies were very unlucky to lose both of those games. Head coach Jedd Fisch is an offensive guru, and his Huskies are better than their record indicates, as they are ranked 13th in EPA per play, while QB Will Rogers has the Huskies ranked 12th in EPA per pass and ninth in Pass Success Rate. Defensively, the Huskies are ranked as the fifth-best tacklers in the country, and they specialize in not giving up the big play—not that Michigan’s one-sided offense is capable of many fireworks. The Huskies are undervalued and underrated, and they are spotting deflated points in a game they should win going away.

Sherwood

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