Today's Free Picks for
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Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
Syracuse +6½ over UNLV
Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV
Streaming: FS1
9:00 PM EST. Since 2023, the Rebels have literally been the best bet in all of college football, as they have gone 14-4 against the spread (ATS) with no team matching this run. The point spread is supposed to be the great equalizer but in the case of the Rebels, it has not been and that’s about to change. UNLV’s stock is so high this week that ESPN’s college football coverage had UNLV headlined on its front page yesterday. The media’s influence on who the public gets behind cannot be overstated enough.
Now this week, not just because of the entire Matthew Sluka incident, UNLV has been one of the most talked about teams heading into October. Every talking head, pundit, analyst, and thinker alike has hyped up the forthcoming collision in the Mountain West between UNLV and Boise State to which the victor goes the spoils with the inside track to the College Football Playoff. Some have dare declared UNLV the would-be Mountain West Conference Champion and have already given the Rebels the #12 seed. However, that game is weeks away which allows Syracuse to enter into this game under the radar, despite being 3-1 but as we know all too well, this business is one that puts a ton of emphasis on results and not the ingredients, overreacting to what has happened and not considering all the elements that went into the eventualities.
In the not too distant past, Syracuse was an unranked side playing host to a ranked Georgia Tech and as a three-point dog defeated the Yellow Jackets outright. ‘Cuse led by as much as 17 points in that game but any form of market credibility soon vanished when the Orange lost on a walk-off field goal to visiting Stanford 13 days later as a nine-point choice. Syracuse would follow that loss up with a 42-14 thrashing of FCS Holy Cross last week but no one will bat an eye at that one because the Orange were supposed to win this game and actually failed to cover as 30½-point favorite, diminishing to a less than appetizing 1-3 ATS on the season.
By contrast, UNLV has been cashing tickets like a madman, have two wins over Power 4 opponents (one of whom was ranked in the Top 25 in the pre-season), and exploded for 59 points and defeated Fresno State by 45 despite UNLV being favored by only 2½ points at kickoff. In what was a game of question marks with Hajj-Malik Williams taking over at quarterback for Matthew Sluka who left town huffing and puffing over a blown NIL deal, all the Rebels did was go out and score 55 points against Fresno St. UNLV.
UNLV is getting way too much credit and market hype here. Its four wins this year came against two Power 4 opponents who are both 1-4 and whose best win between the two of them was against Rice. The Rebels also bode victories against a FCS cupcake in Utah Tech, and the aforementioned Fresno State whose three wins this season were against two bottom-feeders in New Mexico and New Mexico State and a FCS foe in Sacramento State.
In other words, UNLV has beaten teams who have beaten no one. Syracuse will be a step up in opposition while UNLV will be nothing new for the ACC stalwart. If you bet UNLV this week, you may indeed win, as it is one lousy game but you are extremely late to the Rebels ticket cashing party. Due to UNLV’s stock being somewhere outside the Milky Way at this point, there is tremendous value on Syracuse to come in under the number and or win outright.
Sherwood
Pinnacle takes some of the lowest fees on all users’ bets, meaning it’s able to offer some of the best value odds on the market. Compared to other major, well-known sportsbooks, Pinnacle offers superior average odds pricing. Pinnacle’s low betting margins and high betting limits is the best in the biz and will save you thousands of dollars over your betting life.
For instance, a baseball game at most sportsbooks has 20 to 25 cent margins
Arizona -150
Detroit +125
That’s a 25 cent margin but at Pinnacle, it’ll be an 9 cent margin (see example)
Arizona -145
Detroit +134
If you bet on sports daily, Pinnacle is a must have because of their low margins.
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Our Pick
Syracuse +6 -102 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)