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Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Baylor -3 over BYU

McLane Stadium – Waco, TX

Streaming: FS1

12:00 PM EST. The Bears tick a lot of boxes here that fit right into our wheelhouse. First, there are the Cougars, who come into this game ranked #22 in the AP Polls, as they make their debut in the rankings for the first time this season. That makes BYU a prime target because the market puts a lot of weight on the number next to their name. BYU is now taking back a field goal against an unranked foe, which speaks volumes to us.

Then there is the fact that BYU is a sparkling 4-0 against the number, which once again further inflates the market stature of the Cougars. If you bet BYU here, of course you may win but you’re late to the BYU ticket cashing party. The great equalizer, aka the point-spread inevitably catches up to every team. The inefficient market is eating up the Cougars, which strongly suggests that Baylor is the right play here.

Last week Baylor suffered one of the worst beats one can endure. As a 2½-point underdog, the Bears were leading 31-24 with only ticks remaining at Colorado when Shedeur Sanders launched a prayer to the end zone which was answered when WR Lajohntay Wester made a diving catch to send the game to extra time. Colorado would then escape with a 38-31 victory. That was a pure bad luck loss. Had Baylor won last week, we are almost certain that Baylor would be spotting more points than the number you see here, because wins and losses have the most impact on the market and media.

Coming off a demoralizing loss at Colorado to fall to 0-2 in Big XII play, the Bears appear to be headed to their fourth losing season in five years under Dave Aranda. That’s not a good look against a ranked team that comes into Waco unbeaten. Let’s not forget that the Cougars were projected to have a second consecutive rough season after a 5-7 finish in their first run as a Big XII member, but as mentioned above, have won and covered in all four games thus far, pulling off outright upsets over SMU and Kansas State. So, before you go and pull the trigger on the appealing underdog here, ask yourself why oddsmakers have BYU in an underdog role again. We are presented with a prototypical buy-low/sell-high scenario that enables us to move in on the chalk at a bargain price

Sherwood

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