Today's Free Picks for
Pinnacle+117 BET365 +120 Sportsinteraction +120 888Sport +120
Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
FIU +120 over Louisiana Tech
Pitbull Stadium – Miami, FL
Streaming: ESPN+
6:00 PM EST. This isn’t exactly Georgia v Alabama but that doesn’t mean we cannot derive some equity here. As a 12-point favorite last week at home, FIU was upset by visiting Monmouth from the MEAC, a FCS conference known more for college basketball. A loss of this nature depleted the already non-existent market status of the Panthers but as a result of this harrowing defeat, the pending overreaction provides us with an opportunity to take advantage.
Louisiana Tech is what we define as a “bad favorite”. Bad favorites are teams that perform the role of favorite rarely, and unreliably. Expansion has overpopulated the bottom tier of the FBS, and consequently there are plenty of really poor teams occasionally asked to spot points, especially in the less recently stabilized leagues. The bad-favorite archetype is a program that hasn't won much at all the past several years, let alone posted winning seasons. Rarely favored to win, its players are accustomed to losing. These teams aren't good enough to play four mistake-free quarters, lack explosive playmakers, aren't accustomed to playing with leads and haven't had enough experience closing out games. Any victory is usually hard-earned. These are not the teams you want to ask to win, let alone win on the road at an inflated price. The Bulldogs are just 7-20 under Sonny Cumbie, thus they fit this characterization, as they have also won just two games in their last 10 outings, one of which was against a FCS opponent. Louisiana Tech was favored last week as a three-point choice at home against visiting Tulsa and subsequently lost 23-20. Early this season, the Bulldogs narrowly covered as an eight-point favorite when they defeated FCS Nicholls State 25-17 in Ruston. In that game, the Bulldogs were up 15-10 heading into the fourth quarter.
Now the Bulldogs are placed in a position that they do not often excel in and it is largely the result of a catastrophic loss that FIU sustained last week. The market has quickly forgotten that the Panthers routed Central Michigan on September 7th when the Chips came to town as a 3.5-point choice and FIU went onto whack them 52-16. However, this result is ancient history to a “what have you done for me lately” business. FIU outright gets the call.
Sherwood
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Our Pick
FIU +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)