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Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Houston +16 over Iowa St

TDECU Stadium – Houston, TX

Streaming: FS1

7:00 PM EST. What is value? We often speak of it, but what does it look like? Iowa State opened as a 12.5-point favorite and has been bet up to the price we have now where the Cyclones are now spotting over two converted touchdowns to the hosts. The 3½-point increase means the inefficient market has spoken once again. We are now getting a home dog, who has been evaluated by oddsmakers as somewhat of a threat, taking back an additional field goal plus a hook and crossing key numbers while doing so. However, that’s not strictly what we are focused on. It’s the situation that adds to the sauce.

Iowa State emerged in the Top 25 for the first time last week but were tasked with disposing of a bottom-feeder in Arkansas State in Ames and did so successfully in a 52-7 rout. What catapulted the ‘Clones into national attention was their rallying from 13 down against arch nemesis Iowa in Iowa City and defeating the then #21 Iowa Hawkeyes 20-19. That victory was precipitated by a 21-3 win over FCS North Dakota, who was also ranked in the Top 25 of the STATS Coaches Poll but it was the victory over Iowa that resonated with the market and put ISU back on the map.

Last week at Cincinnati, Houston was a 3.5-point underdog but lost 34-0. The Cougars have played a fairly challenging schedule to start this season, but save for the 33-7 win over Rice, have shown next-to-nothing offensively. Keep in mind that one touchdown against Rice was on special teams and another came on a drive that started at the Owls one-yard line. The Cougars have scored only 19 points total in the three losses and got shut-out last week in Cincinnati with only 233 total yards. Houston now faces an Iowa State pass defense that is 12th in the country by EPA. The narrative in the market is, “how the hell is the home team going to move the ball” in this one because they don't have much of a rushing attack either. That’s X’s and O’s and something we care not about because it has never helped anyone pick winners consistently, which takes us full circle back to value.

You see, Iowa State also leans on their defense to win games, as the only time they have eclipsed the 21-point mark this year was against a cupcake that a Pee Wee team could score on. The lower Over/Under of 43 would suggest that defenses will rule this contest and that is also not conducive to spotting this amount of points, especially with a road team. Remember, the Cyclones are now a ranked commodity and the value has slumped.

Sherwood

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