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Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Georgia -1 over Alabama

Saban Field at Bryant Denny Stadium – Tuscaloosa, AL

Streaming: ABC

7:30 PM EST. There have been a variety of graphics this week that talk about what was going on in the world the last time that the Alabama Crimson Tide were an underdog at home, 17 years ago. Gas was $1.06 a gallon, Tim Tebow was a Heisman Trophy Winner, and George W. Bush was President of the United States. There are some kids in high school now that weren’t even alive then. Nostalgia aside, such an event has become historic and the market has been gobbling this up all week, as it cannot believe its eyes.

In the preseason, Georgia was priced as a 3½-point choice in this very game. That number made its way down to -2.5 after the Dawgs suffered a scare at Kentucky two weeks ago when UGA survived the ‘Cats 13-12 as a 21.5-point favorite. While that was going on, Alabama trampled Wisconsin in Madison by a score of 42-10 as 14-point choice. As the week has wore on, the market has continued to pound ‘Bama to where now the Dawgs are spotting a porkchop to the Tide.

Then there is the history between these two rivals. Excepting the one win in 2022 where the Dawgs ended a National Championship drought that extended back to 1980 by defeating Alabama 33-18, Alabama has been Georgia’s proverbial hurdle. The Tide kept Georgia from winning the SEC in 2023 and ending their 29-game winning streak which ultimately kept them out of the playoff to pull off a three-peat. Alabama defeated Georgia in Tuscaloosa in 2020, 41-24, Alabama defeated Georgia in the 2018 SEC Championship and ruined the Dawgs’ playoff aspirations. The Tide also beat Georgia in overtime in the 2017 National Championship Game. The Bulldogs have lost eight of the last nine meetings and outside of the National Title win in the 2021-2022 season have not defeated Alabama in 17 years. When we throw this into the mix, we must question why the Dawgs are favored to beat Alabama in Alabama for the first time in 17 years? The inefficient market is eating up all these useless narratives and we’re here to take full advantage of it all, including recency bias.

Let us not stand on ceremony. Perception is a fickle one. Once upon a time, Georgia was the #1 team in the country and they absolutely trampled Clemson 34-3 in Atlanta on August 31st. Then and there, many were ready to dub Georgia the team to beat in all of college football until UGA had a tough outing in Lexington against the Wildcats two weeks ago. Indeed, Kentucky may feel that it should have won the game and could have done so but that struggle against a perceived much weaker weak team has the inefficient market foaming at the mouth to get to the window to bet the wrong side. Once again, the inefficient market is reacting to one game, which is a cardinal sin of wagering.

Subsequently, the Dawgs fell to #2 in the AP Poll after that near scare and many talking heads have now cited that Georgia may lose multiple games in the regular season. The Dawgs’ stock has gone from the penthouse to the basement by virtue of one week of results. As a result of this severe overreaction to one week, we are getting the superior side and coach at a discount. In Kentucky, that was “C” game Georgia you saw. Today, you will see “A game” Georgia so don’t let Rece Davis and the college game day crew convince you of anything else.

Sherwood

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