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Posted at 1:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Temple +12½ over Army

Lincoln Financial Field - Philadelphia, PA

Streaming: ESPN 

7:30 PM EST. Army is off to a perfect 3-0 start, both Straight Up and Against the Spread (ATS), and the Black Knights are scoring points in bunches. In their first game, Army scored 42 against Lehigh, covering as a -32-point favorite. In Week 2, the Black Knights went on the road to Florida Atlantic as a small +1-point underdog and won that game outright, 24-7. Army sat out Week 3 before hosting Rice in Week 4, where they were -7½-point chalk and whacked the Owls 37-14. Now, with their stock on the rise, the Black Knights are featured in a stand-alone prime-time game on ESPN, where they are attracting a ton of attention from the media and the market.

We’re not looking to rain on Army’s parade—OK, maybe a little—but this is a one-dimensional team. Yes, when the triple option is operating at its highest level, it can be very tough to defend, but when it’s well-defended, it can be difficult to build a lead and then pull away, which the Black Knights must do here if they hope to cover these inflated points. We’ll also note the total in this game, which, for a college football game, is pretty low at just 46 points. A low total is not conducive to covering a large spread, and for Army to cash a ticket here, they are going to need to stop Temple from scoring. However, that may be easier said than done.

The Owls are 1-3, but they are better than their record would indicate. However, they are a program that had little to no expectation for success before the season, so they are not on the radar. That said, a closer look at the Owls shows that they have played some quality ball at times, even if they have been on the wrong side of the final score. In Week 1, versus Oklahoma, the Owls were blown out, 51-3, but we watched that game, and one thing that stuck with us was the fact that Temple won the time of possession (T.O.P.) in a game they lost by seven touchdowns. The reason the Owls suffered such a fate was that they turned the ball over six times. Do you know how incredible it is to win the T.O.P. after posting a -6 turnover differential?

The Owls were undone by turnovers again in Week 2 against Navy (-3) and Week 3 versus Coastal Carolina (-2), which were games they lost. But last week, those turnovers were non-existent, as those bounces and breaks often even out over time. Last week, in their game at home against Utah State, the Owls did not turn the ball over, and they scored 45 points in a 45-29 win. Now, we can’t predict if Temple will turn the ball over tonight, but we can gladly scoop up the inflated points we are being offered in what is likely the Owls' highest-profile game of the season, as it’s the only prime-time game they will host in 2024. “The Link” will be rocking, and the prudent play is to snag the double digits on offer here, but don’t be shocked if the Owls hand Army its first loss.

Sherwood

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