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Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Mississippi St +6½ over Florida

Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field – Starkville, MS

Streaming: ESPN

12:00 PM EST. There are a couple of prevailing narratives in this game. First, there is the state of Florida football in which some would suggest that Coach Billy Napier’s seat is so warm that he is in fact coaching for his job in this game. Whether that is true or not is hearsay and speculation that the market is clearly buying into. Such rumblings nevertheless came to the forefront when the Gators were defeated 33-20 last Saturday in The Swamp by Texas A&M. Normally, such context would prompt us to zero in on Florida this week but when we consider who the Gators are playing, the “must-win” angle merges with the “bounce-back” archetype, which makes the Bulldogs the appetizing option here.

As a 10½-point favorite last week, Mississippi State was absolutely ransacked by their guests from the MAC, the Toledo Rockets by a score of 41-17. This result for a SEC constituent against a mid-major foe is absolutely embarrassing, especially considering Starkville is known as a tough place to play, cowbells and all. What this in turn creates is a scenario where the market will avoid the Bulldogs like the plague and be more inclined to fade them especially when the Gators have been under such pressure to right the ship after a tumultuous start. What that creates for us is an opportunity.

We have watched this line continue to rise over the course of this week, as the efficient market has been hammering the Gators throughout. The market views Mississippi State as Samford (the only team Florida has beaten this year) when it should be viewing State as an opponent that will enter this game with similar desperation and nothing to lose. A win for Mississippi State against Florida will invigorate the Bulldogs as much as a victory is pressing for Florida but the action has been one-sided to reveal that only the Gators’ sense of urgency is considered.

With all the uncertainty surrounding Florida and their lack of explosiveness overall, we are unsure if they should be spotting points on the road to anyone other than an FCS team at this point and the asking price here on Florida is indicative of an overreaction to Mississippi State’s debacle against Toledo last week. Had the Bulldogs done what they were supposed to do, it would safe to surmise that Florida may not even be spotting a field goal to the hosts but be that as it may, there is a strong possibility that Florida could lay another egg and we’ll move in accordingly on the Bulldogs, whose stock is even more maligned than their guests. Big upset possibility.

Sherwood

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