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Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Villanova +17½ over Maryland

SECU Stadium – College Park, MD

Streaming: Big Ten Network (BTN)

12:00 PM EST. We’ve cited how FBS-FCS bias can present us with unique opportunities to snag some value and what we have here is an illustration of said example. For those not privy to the profile of the Villanova Wildcats football team, allow us to delve further. Last year, the Wildcats finished their season ranked #6 in the STATS FCS Poll and were subsequently eliminated from the FCS Playoff in the quarterfinals by the hands of #1 South Dakota State, the team that went onto win the National Championship. Though the Jackrabbits would complete their season 15-0 and undefeated, virtually wrecking any team it came across en route, the Jacks did not have an easy time with the ‘Cats in their postseason collision. In fact, Villanova played with SDSU for four quarters and the final tally was 23-12 South Dakota State. Throughout the contest, Villanova was consistently in striking distance well into the fourth quarter. The ‘Cats were within five points of the Rabbits in their own backyard with 13:29 to play and had they converted a two-point conversion could have been within a field goal, but failed to do so. On the ensuing drive, a 66-yard touchdown run on a broken play resulted in a South Dakota State touchdown which put them ahead by 12 and then Villanova’s momentum was undone when they committed their only turnover of the game which turned out to be quite costly. Since then, Villanova has won its first three games of the 2024 season and sit #5 in the FCS Stats Coaches Poll.

Villanova will not be intimidated in this setting. Instead, they will view this contest as yet another opportunity to build upon but because of the inherent bias that comes with FBS teams against FCS teams, albeit a B1G member no less, we are going to get a highly-motivated visitor taking back an inflated assortment of points, which is a position we often move in on.

Despite not actually beating anyone of consequence, Maryland’s stock is quite high. You see, the Terrapins have covered the number in six of their last seven attempts dating back to last year and the market is enamored by this meaningless trend. Moreover, Maryland defeated rival Virginia last week in Charlottesville 27-13 despite being a three-point pup. The market cashed what appeared to be an easy ticket as Maryland outscored UVA 27-6 after giving up two early field goals. However, what the market is overlooking is the fact that Virginia has been in bad form as of late, unlike their opponent who is coming to College Park with the Terrapins in their crosshairs. A scare is certainly not of question here and if there was a candidate for a FBS-FCS upset this week, this would be it. The Terps are also in a big lookahead spot, as they play conference rival Indiana next week.

Villanova will not be intimidated in this setting. Instead, they will view this contest as yet another opportunity to build upon but because of the inherent bias that comes with FBS teams against FCS teams, albeit a B1G member no less, we are going to get a highly-motivated visitor taking back an inflated assortment of points. The underdog checks many boxes here.

Sherwood

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