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Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Western Kentucky +119 over Toledo

Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium – Bowling Green, KY

Streaming: ESPN+

7:00 PM EST. Few teams made more of an exclamation point last week than the Toledo Rockets when they marched into Starkville, Mississippi and hung 41 points on SEC member Mississippi State in their own backyard. The Rockets not only lit up the scoreboard but they absolutely dominated State in a rout that saw Toledo win by 24 points. That has the market chomping at the bit to get on board with the Rockets here.

We could simply state that backing the Rockets here is a week too late because they were a 10½-point pup last week but we would also have to highlight that Toledo opened spotting a pork-chop to the Hilltoppers (-1) and that makes Toledo look too easy here. After all, the implication here is that this game is a 50-50 proposition despite the fact Toledo has dominated every thing it has come across this season while Western Kentucky was the sacrificial offering that Alabama used to ring in the Kalen DeBoer era in Tuscaloosa a few weeks ago. Western Kentucky lost that game 63-0.

This business is a “what have you done for me lately” kind of gambit. The last time the ‘Toppers were in public view, they were getting spanked while Toledo was kicking tail and taking names in Cowbell Country. In the end analysis, Toledo caught Mississippi State at the right time, as they were flat on the heels of a demoralizing 31-24 defeat at the hands of visiting Arizona State the week prior. State had rallied to within seven points of the Sun Devils despite trailing by 27 at one point. Mississippi State came into the game in body but not in spirit and Toledo took advantage. Now, WKU is catching the Rockets at the right time, as they are under the radar while Toledo could be basking in the glory of last week’s showing.

Under Tyson Helton, Western Kentucky has become one of the best passing teams in all of the FBS. as they sit 19th overall in passing yards per game (311.7) and 23rd overall in completion percentage (69%). Boding the services of signal-caller TJ Finley, a journeyman quarterback who has dual-threat capacity, the ‘Toppers get a favorable match-up against Toledo, who, despite all their demolition work of Mississippi State, UMass and Duquesne notwithstanding are 101st in the FBS against the pass allowing 246.3 yards per game. What this creates is Western Kentucky getting a favorable matchup at home against a Toledo team that could be feeling themselves after an emphatic win against an SEC foe. The best part is because Toledo did such a number against Mississippi State last week, we would argue that the wrong side is actually favored here and we’ll play it as such. ‘Toppers straight up.

Sherwood

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