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Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Miami Ohio +3 over Cincinnati

Fred C. Yager Stadium – Oxford, OH

Streaming: ESPNU

12:00 PM EST. Revenge is a dish best served cold. So, the old saying goes but the story of the latest iteration of The Battle for the Victory Bell is a chronicle of the Redhawks defeating the Bearcats in overtime last year to end a 16-game win streak in the series by Cinci. “Cinci is looking for revenge”, which is another narrative the market supports but we do not. How do we know the market is buying it? Well, the Bearcats opened as a 2½-point choice and have been bet up. That’s the first sign of the inefficient market getting a hold of a number.

Then there is also the “bounce-back” aspect of this game for the Bearcats who last week as a two-point favorite blew a 24-point lead against Pitt and fell 28-27 losing outright as a two-point choice. Cincinnati was well in control against the Panthers late into the third quarter until Pitt would do the unthinkable and rally to victory by a virtual walk-off field goal. Whether it's losing as a favorite, losing in the final seconds or losing a game after holding a double-digit fourth-quarter lead, no matter how the data is sliced, trust us when we say that road favorite is the worst role for such teams the following week. Why that role? Any team that's still a dog despite being at home is probably perceived as inferior, so there's not enough fear or concern to instill urgency in preparation -- plus, there's no home crowd to spark the need for immediate atonement. Now trust us again when we say that no matter how you define it, the Bearcats’ meltdown versus Pitt counts. This was as devastating as they come, and it would probably take a panel of Hall of Fame motivators to get this team off the mat this week.

Miami Ohio has also had an extra week to prepare for this game against their arch rival and you can be assured that they will be keen to prove last year’s victory was no fluke and further diminish the Bearcat dominance in this feud. Miami was a popular public dog against Northwestern in their season kickoff, where, as a three-point pooch, it failed to cover in what was a sloppy 13-6 loss. Miami’s loss did not endear them one bit to the market and now the Bearcats look like free money to the unsuspecting

Sherwood

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