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Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Southern Miss +12 over South Florida

M.M Roberts Stadium – Hattiesburg, MS

Streaming: ESPN+

7:00 PM EST. In our preseason notes in Conference Futures, we mentioned we liked South Florida and everything it brings to the table with one of the best backfields in all of America with quarterback Byrum Brown and RB Nay’Quan Wright. It also bodes the services of one of College Football’s up and coming coaches in Alex Golesh. Though USF summarily lost to Alabama 42-16 in Tuscaloosa last week, they nonetheless left a positive taste in the market’s mouth, as they were going blow for blow with the Crimson Tide for three quarters, which saw the tally stand at 14-13 heading into the final frame. The Tide would explode for a 28-3 fourth quarter but USF would come in under the number as a 30½-point underdog. It is worth mentioning that the game literally got away from the Bulls, as the score even late in the fourth quarter was 28-16 until the Tide poured it on and got separation in the final 3 minutes. Now, the market can’t get enough of South Florida.

When looking to diagnose an overreaction, we look for radical point swings from week to week. We mentioned that South Florida was a 30½-point pup last week in T-Town and now this week they are spotting 12½-points on the road. That is a point swing of 43 points and typifies the mantra of fading an overreaction. All of this can be attested to how impressive the Bulls looked through three and a half quarters of football against the most decorated program in college football history in a primetime spot. Furthermore, this contest is also a “sandwich game” for South Florida. The Bulls will face another Top 10 opponent next week in Tampa when they host the Miami Hurricanes.

Southern Miss has won just two games against FBS opponents in their last 14 attempts dating back to last year. Underdogs of this nature are dangerous because they have nothing to lose and everything to gain at the expense of a team that has far more allure and appeal. USF goes from the hunter to the hunted and we wouldn’t be surprised if Southern Miss pulled off a shocker but we’ll help ourselves to the points.

Sherwood

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