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Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Georgia St +9½ over Vanderbilt

Center Parc Stadium – Atlanta, GA

Streaming: ESPN+

7:00 PM EST. What we have is a tale of two seasons. Vanderbilt came into the fray in 2024 with minimal expectations but have been quite impressive, as they staged an outright upset of visiting Virginia Tech in Nashville to kick off the campaign when they were a 13-point dog and absolutely obliterated Alcorn State last week in the Music City by a score 55-0 to cover easy as a 33.5-point favorite. The Commodores and now 2-0 on the year both straight up and against the number.

On the flipside, Georgia State had diminished expectations, as they were predicted to finish last in the Sun Belt Conference East Division. But unlike Vanderbilt who has usurped prognostication and made a splash early on, the Panthers have failed to cover this season and now stand at 1-1 on the year overall. The Panthers stock remains depleted while Vanderbilt’s is surging. This presents us with an opportunity to step in.

Media influence skews public perception, which is in play here. Vanderbilt’s first opponent (Virginia Tech) has a bit of a brand prestige and they were pegged by many as a dark horse for the ACC after they fell into good form to tail off 2023. The hype carried over to 2024 though VT didn’t actually beat anyone of substance. That was our prime reason to fade the Hokies against the Commodores, as Vanderbilt competes against the best on an annual basis and dramatically improved their roster with the addition of quarterback Diego Pavia from New Mexico State. What we wrote two weeks ago about Vandy, the media is now disseminating about the Commodores. The media is reacting to what they have seen, just like they did with Virginia Tech from last year’s conclusion. The only difference is that this reactionary methodology leads to premature conclusions and betting teams too late, both of which apply here.

Philosophical prose moved aside, Georgia State opened their season against a team that surged into the Top 25 and was feeling itself after Georgia Tech made headlines and ventured off to Dublin, Ireland to knock off then #10 ranked Florida State. The market was quick to snap up the Yellow Jackets against GSU and cashed a ticket at the expense of the Panthers in a 35-12 rout when Georgia State was taking back 20½ points. Georgia State would follow that up with a 24-21 win over Chattanooga from the FCS last week but failed to cover as a 10-point choice. However, we would be remiss to highlight that Chattanooga started their season ranked into the Top 10 in the FCS polls and are no slouch even if they were rolled by Tennessee in Rocky Top to kick off their 2024 campaign. There is a confluence of variables that make these two teams appear contrasting though the soft line says otherwise.

We’re not one harp on what ifs but if Vanderbilt lost to Virginia Tech like it was supposed to, the market wouldn’t be so quick to buy on the ‘Dores and spot points on the road here. Had Georgia Tech lost a heartbreaker to Florida State as opposed to win (which could have easily happened), the Jackets may have been flat last week in Atlanta and the Panthers may have capitalized and cashed a ticket, perhaps they would be the ones getting the love here. The price offered sheds some light on this insight. Vanderbilt also travels to Missouri next week in a potential undefeated showdown with the #6 team in the country, so there are also lookahead possibilities in play as well. All of the moving parts prompt us to take a closer look at Georgia State.

Sherwood

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