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Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Sam Houston St -4 over Hawaii

Elliot T. Bower Stadium – Huntsville, TX

Streaming: ESPN+

7:00 PM EST. In the young college football season, we’ve seen the Rainbow Warriors subjected to many zig-zag scenarios and when the markets zigs, ye zag. Hawaii opened the season as a 40-point favorite against Delaware State and with it came all the hype, hoopla, and lofty prognostications for the ‘Bows. Against the lowly Hornets who won just one game last year in the MEAC, Hawaii not only failed to cover but didn’t even score 40 points. In fact, the game was tied at 14 midway through the third quarter until Hawaii got some breathing room with a strong fourth quarter and won 35-14. No matter how you spell it, it wasn’t a good look for the Rainbow Warriors who were clearly looking ahead to hosting UCLA last week in Honolulu.

Last week in the Islands, we were on Hawaii, as they were a 13-point pup playing host to the Bruins, perhaps the biggest opponent to appear in Hawaii in a decade and the Rainbow Warriors were never not close to covering. In fact, the Rainbow Warriors were up 10-0 at halftime and let the lead slip away. UCLA would escape with a 16-13 win that saw it notch its nose over the line with a go-ahead field goal with less than a minute to go. Hawaii was literally a few plays away from staging an upset against a B1G program with a historic legacy, a win of which would have been program-defining. Instead, Hawaii is left with what could have been.

Coach Timmy Chang said it best: “In a game like this, it’s tough. They made a few more plays than us and the result is what it is.” He then went on to express his sympathies for his players and believes that they will bounce back and work hard despite the heart-breaking disappointment. The market is zagging on the Rainbow Warriors after the impressive showing against UCLA and equally is purporting this idea. However, the authors of the line are taking a clear position otherwise that Hawaii will be showing up in only body and not spirit, and their opponent will be on the flipside bringing their all.

Then there is Sam Houston State’s market credibility which could be one of the worst in all of the FBS. They had made a living appearing on several episodes of Scott Van Pelt’s Bad Beats last season and went just 3-9 in 2023. Most recently, the Bearkats got the doors blown off by UCF in Orlando last week by a score of 45-14 and failed to come in under the number as a 21.5-point pup. Despite all of that, the ‘Kats are favored by four points here against the visiting Rainbow Warriors who just went toe-to-toe with UCLA? We are scratching our heads as much as anyone but as contrarian bettors by proxy, the choice is an obvious one.

Sherwood

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