Today's Free Picks for
Pinnacle -7 -106 BET365 -7 -110 Sportsinteraction -7 -110 888Sport -7 -110
Posted at 1:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.
Kansas State -7 over Arizona
Bill Snyder Family Stadium - Manhattan, KS
Streaming: FOX
8:00 PM EST. Arizona is 2-0, but it has not looked very good in two games this season, giving up 39 points to New Mexico in Week 1 and then struggling to move the ball five yards against FBS Northern Arizona in Week 2. The Wildcats took a makeshift offensive line into last week, which created problems for QB Noah Fifita, who threw for just 173 yards against the Lumberjacks. Perhaps most concerning was that the Wildcats did not convert a third-down attempt, going 0-for-10 in that department. Heading into this week, not only is Arizona working with a patchwork line, but they could also be without starting RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who has been held out thus far due to eligibility concerns.
Meanwhile, the Wildcats of Kansas State (KSU) are also 2-0 after having to come back from down 10 against Tulane last Saturday, picking up a 34-27 win but failing to cover as a -9½-point road favorite. KSU is 0-2 Against the Spread so far this season, which is one reason the market is siding against them. However, K-State has yet to reach its full potential on offense, as QB Avery Johnson has yet to show what he can do with his legs in addition to his arm. Johnson has thrown for 334 yards with 4 TDs and 1 INT this season, but he’s only rushed for 77 yards in two games.
Forget the X’s and O’s and the cute story that this is a Big 12 game without really being a Big 12 game, as it was scheduled before Arizona left the Pac-12 in the dust for green ($) pastures out east and therefore won’t count in this season’s Big 12 conference standings. That might be an interesting talking point for the suits, but to us, it matters not. What matters here is that Kansas State opened as a -7½-point favorite in this game, but the market has taken a stand and bitten the “hook” off that key number of seven. Fading the market is an important part of our handicapping process, and the one-sided action on Arizona is enough for us to step in and back Kansas State. Swallow the points.
Sherwood
Pinnacle takes some of the lowest fees on all users’ bets, meaning it’s able to offer some of the best value odds on the market. Compared to other major, well-known sportsbooks, Pinnacle offers superior average odds pricing. Pinnacle’s low betting margins and high betting limits is the best in the biz and will save you thousands of dollars over your betting life.
For instance, a baseball game at most sportsbooks has 20 to 25 cent margins
Arizona -150
Detroit +125
That’s a 25 cent margin but at Pinnacle, it’ll be an 9 cent margin (see example)
Arizona -145
Detroit +134
If you bet on sports daily, Pinnacle is a must have because of their low margins.
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Our Pick
Kansas St -7 -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)