Pinnacle -106  BET365 -110 portsinteraction -110  888Sport -110

Posted at 1:30 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Texas State -106 over Arizona State

Bobcat Stadium - San Marcos, TX

Streaming: ESPN

7:30 PM EST. Much about this game stands out, so we’ll get right to it. First and foremost, we have a Sun Belt school in Texas State priced neck and neck with a Power Four (P4) conference team in Arizona State that is coming into this game at 2-0, both straight up and against the spread (ATS). In Week 1, the Sun Devils ran roughshod over Wyoming, 48-7, as a -6½ point home favorite, and in Week 2, they knocked off Mississippi State, also in Tempe, 37-30, but that was a game they were up 30-3 in before taking their foot off the gas and almost letting the Bulldogs in the back door.

As impressive as those wins may be, there may be some concern with newly minted starting QB Sam Leavitt, who regressed versus Mississippi State after dominating Wyoming. Last week, Leavitt went just 10-of-20 passing for 65 yards while averaging -0.53 Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback. The Sun Devils are a run-heavy team, but they still need a pivot that can keep a good defense honest, and we’ve yet to see how he’ll perform in a hostile environment.

Enter the Bobcats of Texas State, who are also 2-0, but 1-1 ATS after a much closer-than-expected contest with Lamar in their opening game, where the Bobs won 34-27 as a -33½-point favorite. Last week, Texas State whacked UT-San Antonio, 49-10, as a modest -2½-point favorite at home in San Marcos. Against the Roadrunners, new QB transfer (James Madison), Jordan McCloud, led the Bobs' high-octane offense that returned nine starters, with 309 yards on 18-of-27 pass attempts. Runner Lincoln Pare balanced things out on the ground, rushing 11 times for 109 yards and two majors. The Bobcats also returned nine starters on a defense that looks to be improving after allowing just 10 points in Week 2, following their shaky performance against Lamar in Game 1.

This is a prime-time game on ESPN, and while there is another college football game tonight, it has a six-touchdown spread, so all eyes are going to be on this one, as will the lion’s share of the action. With that said, we doubt the books were caught off guard by this matchup or by just how one-sided the action might be due to market perception. The Sun Devils are a P4 team that is 2-0 and already had a great showing versus another P4 school in the SEC’s Mississippi State, and Texas State is a Group of Five (G5) Sun Belt school that isn’t on the national radar. However, the Bobs bring a hostile crowd with them, and this is a rare nationally televised prime-time game. This might as well be the National Championship for Texas State, as there is not a bigger game on the Bobs' schedule this season. Texas State will bring everything, including the kitchen sink here, and if the Sun Devils go down, they are ill-equipped to keep pace their a one-sided attack.

Sherwood

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