Pinnacle +22 -109 BET365 +22 -110  Sportsinteraction +22 -110 888Sport +22 -110

Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Charlotte +22 over North Carolina

Keenan Memorial Stadium – Chapel Hill, NC

Streaming: ACC Network

3:30 PM EST. There are a couple tenants to this play. First, we are “sticking with it” as we were on the 49ers against visiting James Madison and saw Charlotte summarily creamed 30-7. The 49ers were taking back eight points but were nowhere near close to coming in under the number. Expanding further, Charlotte has gone 2-8 overall in their last 10 outings and have failed to cover in their preceding three attempts. As a result, the value potential increases, as Charlotte’s stock continues to take further hits. This is why we always encourage one to “stick with it” as such teams will be getting a better price every week under such conditions, even if it appears otherwise.

Charlotte’s 23-point loss to James Madison was also an extremely misleading score, as JMU had just 14 first downs the entire game while Charlotte had 17. Charlotte held a time of possession edge and had better numbers in many key metrics but all the market sees and puts emphasis on is the final score.

North Carolina also makes a perfect fade target to exploit here. First, there is Power Five versus Group of Five bias which renders UNC to be spotting more points than it should out of the gate but then there is also the potential for UNC to come into this game flat footed after the Tar Heels pulled off a dramatic 19-17 win at Minnesota, last week which was settled on the final play when the Golden Gophers missed the game-winning field goal attempt. Subsequently, the Tar Heels players stormed the field in a frenzy of delight and excitement. Though UNC starting quarterback Max Johnson went down with a season-ending injury when he broke his leg mid-way through the contest, the Tar Heels found a way to win thanks to a litany of Minnesota miscues combined with North Carolina’s place kicker Noah Burnette out-kicking Minnesota place kicker Dragan Kesich to decide the ultimate outcome. The win in the Twin Cities exemplified in-game variance being kind to one party while being cruel to the other despite the horrible tragedy of the Max Johnson injury who we wish a full and speedy recovery.

If one were to replay the UNC-Minnesota tilt under the same circumstances and variables in play, we would expect the Golden Gophers to win that game a majority of the time. Had this been the case, we might find North Carolina coming into this game with the market reluctant to spot so many points because of all the uncertainty surrounding this outfit. UNC did not get into the end zone again after Johnson went down but survived because Minnesota could not hit a field goal when it was needed and committed too many costly penalties and errors that affected the ultimate outcome. Now this same team is expected to lay a mountain of points to a visitor who will be coming in “free-rolling”. For a team like Charlotte, the opportunity to play against one of the big boys in-state will ensure that the 49ers bring their A-Game. North Carolina will be navigating the aftermath of the injury to their leader and perhaps hungover from such a theatrical victory. Not a good look to be spotting points like this in such a scenario.

Sherwood

Pinnacle takes some of the lowest fees on all users’ bets, meaning it’s able to offer some of the best value odds on the market. Compared to other major, well-known sportsbooks, Pinnacle offers superior average odds pricing. Pinnacle’s low betting margins and high betting limits is the best in the biz and will save you thousands of dollars over your betting life.

For instance, a baseball game at most sportsbooks has 20 to 25 cent margins

Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

That’s a 25 cent margin but at Pinnacle, it’ll be an 9 cent margin (see example)

Arizona       -145

Detroit    +134

If you bet on sports daily, Pinnacle is a must have because of their low margins.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------