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Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Illinois +165 over Kansas

Memorial Stadium – Champaign, IL

Streaming: FS1

7:00 PM EST. The Jayhawks have been one of the most talked about teams in early 2024. Despite their reputation historically for not being an elite program, KU has an opportunity to potentially qualify for the College Football Playoff. The notion in itself seems superfluous but with the playoff field expanding to 12 teams along with the champion of the hodgepodge Big 12 getting a guaranteed berth to the big dance. All of a sudden Kansas has postseason aspirations. That’s nice, it really is but unlike the market, we’re not getting on board with the Jayhawks just yet mainly because the media is pimping them and the market is eating it up.

Remarkably, the Jayhawks are ranked the #19 team in the country and bode the services of a brilliant coaching mind in Lance Leipold who has a knack for raising featherweight programs out of the doldrums, i.e. Buffalo before he came to Lawrence. We would also be remiss to highlight the talent that KU boasts in RB Devin Neal, WR Luke Grimm, and QB Jalon Daniels, who is back at the helm after a season-ending back injury ended his 2023 efforts prematurely. KU looked like all systems go when they thrashed FCS Lindenwood 48-3 last week, but we can’t make any deductions on the basis of a glorified scrimmage. What resonates with us is the fact that Kansas, despite all the hype and excitement, is not being trusted to spot even a touchdown to a team that finished 5-7 in 2023 and who only thumped a FCS creampuff in its own right in Eastern Illinois, to kick off 2024.

However, a closer look under the hood would reveal why KU is laying such an affable price to the hosts. Typical Brett Bielema-headed teams boast a strong offensive line complemented by a methodical running game and a physical brand of defense, a style of play that when executed ideally can wear any opponent down and keep said team within striking distance.

In 2023, the Illini were inefficient in all three departments, as their defense struggled and their offensive line was getting outmatched in the trenches. However, Illinois went to the transfer portal and brought in some key pieces to revamp both their offensive line and their defense which returns a battery of talented safeties in Xavier Scott and Miles Scott (no relation) along with havoc-causing linebackers Dylan Rosiek and Seth Coleman. The Illini also added Terrance Brooks from Texas and added a shut-down corner to their ranks. We are not one for breaking down X’s and O’s but the point is that this Illinois team is a much different iteration of that which we saw in 2023 and the price here reflects that. After all, the conditions for an upset are ripe when the visitor has to overcome a physical opponent who can keep the game close in their own backyard. The Illini are tailor made for such a situation and we’ll attempt to take advantage.

Sherwood

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Detroit      +125

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