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Posted at 3:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Northwestern -2 over Duke

Martin Stadium – Evanston, IL

Streaming: FS1

9:00 PM EST We are not going to riddle you with analytics, statistics, and chalk-talk because this is a simple case study on recency bias. Northwestern, though a B1G team, is one of the more maligned outfits in the conference with respect to brand prestige. Presently, NW has no marketability to the average bettor (aka The Man on the Street). There are zero expectations for this team this season in the bolstered B1G, as the Wildcats are picked to finish 14th in a 18-team conference. Though Northwestern went from a 1-11 team in 2022 to an 8-5 team in 2023, no one seems to care. Man, is this host ever under the radar, unlike Duke who last year found itself ranked at one point, ended up hosting College Gameday, and kicked off their 2023 with a signature win against ACC powerhouse Clemson.

Northwestern was picked to finish last in the B1G West last year. Its best regular season win was against a 7-6 Wisconsin team that was atypical. The Wildcats did beat Utah in their bowl game to round off 2023 but the ‘Cats got no respect for that because Utah was characterized as not wanting to be there after missing out on defending their Pac 12 title. This exemplifies recency bias and how it creates subjectivity. As for this year, Northwestern didn’t help its stock when, as a three-point favorite last week, they squeaked out a 13-7 win over MAC team, Miami Ohio. Though Northwestern covered as a three-point favorite, their stock did not rise one bit, as it seems the manner in which Northwestern won was less than inspiring. In this market, scoring 13 points against a MAC team will never endear any program. This was a sloppy game that was settled by field goals and turnovers at pivotal times. Meanwhile Duke rolled through FCS Elon in a 26-3 win but did not cover while doing so as a 24½-point favorite. The market however was quick to forgive Duke, as it was in position to green up until the Phoenix nailed a field goal with 14 ticks remaining to produce a seeing-eye cover.

Make no mistake that linesmakers are taking a clear position here on the favorite. The authors of the line are digging their heels in on a team that has no market credibility and just came off a tug-of-war with a Group of Five constituent. This speaks volumes to us especially when we consider that this is a not game buried in the schedule on Saturday but one of two prominent primetime college football contests on a Friday night where the betting market will have their eyes and wallets on this game.

We have yet to see how the Dukies will fair in what will be a hostile environment away from Cameron without the star quarterback in Riley Leonard or former Head Coach Mike Elko. The weather report is calling for an inclement medley of rain and high wind which will undoubtedly play into the host’s hands, as the game will likely be settled on the ground with it being difficult to throw. The hosts are apt at stopping the run (they held Miami Ohio to just 40 yards on Saturday) and have a playmaker in quarterback Michael Wright who injected himself into the proceedings against the Redhawks to get the Cats over the line. All the variables line up for this to be a long night for Duke and the price says so too.

Sherwood

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