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Posted at 9:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Florida over Miami (FL)

Ben Hill Griffin Stadium – Gainesville, FL

Streaming: ABC

3:30 PM EST. Preface cast aside, the Miami Hurricanes enter into this season with the #19 ranking and some analysts have been daring enough to proclaim that “The U” may just find itself qualifying for the College Football Playoff and to win the ACC. Much of this hype is built upon the shiny new toys that the ‘Canes pulled out of the transfer portal: quarterback Cam Ward from Washington State, RB Damien Martinez from Oregon State, and wide-receiver Sammy Brown from Houston. All three of these pieces combined with a revamped offensive line and returning stud split wide on the other side of the field in Xavier Restrepo have primed the Hurricanes to form one of the most potent offenses not only in the Atlantic Coast Conference but perhaps all of college football.

It is hyperbole such as this combined with Miami’s pedigree that render such lofty prognostications. However, the Canes are not even trusted with spotting a field goal to their unranked cross-state rival in their own stead. That speaks more to us than the chitter-chatter about who Miami has added from the transfer portal.

Mario Cristobal has a long-standing track record of beating himself that haunts him back to his days at Oregon. Georgia Tech-meltdown notwithstanding, the ‘Canes have had a knack for not showing up to the games that would have put them back on the national map but instead lose games they should have won. Then there is Cam Ward who is electric when he’s on but he also spearheaded a Washington State Cougars team that peaked at 4-0 with a #13 ranking last season before going 1-7 down the backstretch and disappearing into the abyss, so much so that Ward skipped town to South Beach. Ward is also 4-8 straight up on the road as a starter so that leaves two big question marks that query whether or not the ‘Canes are in fact as good as advertised. There is also the question of whether the revamped offensive line of Miami can match-up with the physicality of a SEC team like the Gators, but we digress.

Unlike their counterparts, the Gators have generated very little buzz because they haven’t won any big games since 2020 when they beat arch-rival Georgia before then coach Dan Mullen was ousted the following season for up-and-comer coach Billy Napier. The Gators have not played winning football since then. Though 11-14 in their previous two seasons under Napier were competitive in 75% of the games they lost, Florida had few bounces go their way. Had they gotten a better bounce, we would be talking about an entirely different Gator team as opposed to a team that “no one expects anything from, as they are playing arguably the toughest schedule in the country in 2024”. Regardless of how the Gators’ campaign unfolds, the message is clear here from the oddsmakers that Florida is live as hell.

This business is a fickle one. Who would have ever thought that the Florida Gators would find themselves an underdog in the fabled Swamp? After all, it has been heralded for decades as perhaps the toughest place to win a football game in the entire United States of America and yet, because of recent events in the state of the Gator Nation, that is what we have here. This is a huge game in Week 1 that the market is going to heavily bet on. Oddsmakers are begging you to play Miami, therefore, we’ll play the underdog to win outright.

Sherwood

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