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Posted at 9:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

UC Davis +19½ over California

California Memorial Stadium – Berkeley, CA

Streaming: ESPN+

5:00 PM EST. There are a couple moving parts in play here. First, there is the obvious FBS vs. FCS bias, which comes inherent to match-ups of this ilk. The FCS counterpart can be expected to be granted a lofty helping of points but the team taking back the points are no featherweight. In fact, the Aggies are ranked #17 in the pre-season FCS Coaches Poll, which speaks into the quality that this team has to offer. That alone could suggest that UCD could be undervalued out of the gate but there is also a lookahead aspect of this contest, as well.

California has a road-trip to Auburn on-deck and that sets up the Bears to come into this contest in body and not spirit. If you recall, Cal should have beaten Auburn last year when War Eagle came to Strawberry Canyon but a series of California miscues and turnovers allowed the Tigers to escape with the W. Now Cal has this “glorified practice” to open the season with and scenarios like this have often given the big favorite a big scare.

What this essentially creates is California playing a C-game spotting extra points to a team that will bring their A-game and we like that situation every single time. California closed out a century in the Pac-12 with a 14th consecutive losing conference record. Cal now must adapt to playing in the ACC on the opposite coast in the age of NIL and the transfer portal. Endorsements of Cal will be few and far between in this space and in Week 1 we seek to attack unfledged coaching staffs in difficult situations. Communication issues, substitution gaffes and other unforced errors of game management can be worth significant points to the underdog. When you add in the lookahead spot, the transition period and the sloppiness that this team has displayed in the past, the inflated points become very appetizing.

Finally, should the Golden Bears get this game under control early, there is always the prospect of a backdoor cover by way of a couple junk-time scores because it is without question that Cal will be gearing up for next week’s trip to Auburn and pull their starters. Moreover, Cal’s recent acceptance to the ACC will see the Golden Bears logging a lot of travel miles from the West Coast as it heads East several times this season, Auburn not included. If there was a game that the Golden Bears are going to look to coast through, this is the one.

Sherwood

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