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Posted at 9:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Hawaii+14 over UCLA

Clarence T.C. Ching Complex – Honolulu, HI

Streaming: CBS Paramount+

7:30 PM EST. Last week, we faded the Rainbow Warriors in their season opener against FCS squad Delaware State as a 39½-point choice. We wrote that the plan was to come back on the Warriors here should they fail to cover, as there was enormous lookahead potential to this game for Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors not only failed to cover, but did not even score 39 points as a strong fourth quarter allowed them to pull away from the Hornets in a 35-14 win that was deadlocked into the third quarter of play. This was not a good look for Hawaii and as a result, we are presented with an opportunity to buy-low.

Before the Rainbow Warriors ever played one down against D-State, Hawaii was priced as a 13-point underdog playing host to visiting UCLA. As soon as the result came in that the Warriors struggled against Delaware State that number rose to the present asking price now, signaling a reaction to one result and the market failing to consider the ingredients. As we wrote in our analysis last week, this week’s game is perhaps the biggest fixture in the Islands in nearly a decade, as the Warriors will host the Bruins who are a team with a history and pedigree.

UCLA may very well appear in the Top 25 at some point this season and they are also a new member of the B1G Conference, which only further raises their prestige. Honolulu is set to have a bowl game atmosphere here so it’s no surprise they were looking to get Delaware State over and done with.

This is truly a value play on the basis of an overreaction. The fact that UCLA has to break in a new Head Coach in DeShaun Foster in what is a notoriously difficult road trip for most teams to endure (flying five hours across three time zones), prompts us to move in on Hawaii.

Sherwood

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