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Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Delaware State +40 over Hawaii

Clarence T.C. Ching Complex – Honolulu, HI

11:59 PM EST. A breakdown of X’s and O’x is not required here. What we have on paper is a FCS team that won two games last year travelling over 10 hours across six time zones to play against an FBS older brother. However, even in these situations there is value to be found.

We are not here to predict score lines nor are we here to forecast schematics or strategy, that is for the talking heads. In our quest to find value, our goal is to find a scenario where we are taking advantage of overreactions or market preponderances. This is one of those situations. We can simply cite the bias that comes with FBS vs. FCS and the particularly overinflated lines that accompany such matchups on the Week 0 and Week 1 menu as rationale to get behind the Hornets and perhaps that would suffice. However, there are other variables in play that the market is overlooking.

After D-State’s visit, there is an enormous game on the horizon in the Islands next week Saturday when UCLA comes to town. We appreciate that the Bruins in their new B1G home, are likely a middling bunch but the Bruins are nonetheless a team with a pedigree and to have such a team come to Honolulu is one that will create a buzz and stir in a place that lives and breathes football. Furthermore, that game next week against the Bruins is a 7:30 PM EST start and will be covered by CBS. Prime time on CBS on the Island makes it an even bigger deal. Comparably, the last time a good Power Five school came to Honolulu was 10 years prior when #25 Washington kicked off their campaign at Aloha Stadium. These sorts of contests are not common in the Islands and Hawaii is not going to open up their playbook in what is essentially a glorified practice for them. The Rainbow Warriors are in a massive lookahead spot here.

Last year, the Rainbow Warriors finished 5-8 and though they will start their season 1-0 unless something insane happens, this Hawaii program can’t shake mediocrity. They ushered in one of their favorite sons in Timmy Chang to spearhead the revamp as Head Coach. The Chang era started as mentioned with an underwhelming 5-8 mark but a win against UCLA (Hawaii is priced as a 13-point pup at time of writing), puts the program back on the map. We are certain that such narratives are circling through the mind of the Rainbow Warrior collective consciousness.

Meanwhile, Delaware State will come to town free-wheeling and looking to make the most of their road trip. Scoring a touchdown or two or gaining some meaningful minutes in itself would be considered a win for the Hornets while Hawaii will be looking to get this over and done with. Should Delaware State score early, the Warriors would have to score nearly 50 to cover and we are not sure that they are even concerned about that. Also, should Hawaii steamroll the Hornets and get to the front comfortably, Hawaii will undoubtedly pull their starters early in preparation for UCLA which opens the backdoor cover. There are several avenues for Delaware State to come in under this lofty number and we’re on it.

Sherwood

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