Pinnacle N/A BET365 u10½ +120 Sportsinteraction u10½ +145 888Sport u10½ +120

Posted July 29, 2024. Odds subject to change.

Ohio State under 10½ Wins

When we mine the board for value, particularly in futures markets, our quest is to find a scenario where a team’s market clout may render audiences to have a conflated view of said team. As such, we get presented with an opportunity where such expectations put a team in position to easily fall short of a lofty number because the market is buying into the rhetoric and hype. Ohio State could serve as a prime case study.

Before we get into how this future is beatable, we must dive deeper into the characterization of Ohio State football and its vicious cycle of boding an astronomical ceiling on an annual basis but always finding a way to come back to orbit. We wax poetic but the Buckeyes have not won a national championship since 2014 but it seems every year that they are peddled as a pre-season media darling to hoist the hardware. The market continues to gobble up the hyperbole that consists of Ohio State returning exceptional talent in its wide receiver room combined with the influx of transfers and high-caliber recruits that will bolster the Buckeyes’ roster from top-to-bottom.

The addition of quarterback Will Howard from Kansas State and rugged runner Quinshon Judkins from Ole Miss has left much of the media panel salivating, as Ryan Day gets a veteran quarterback and prolific rusher to complement an exceptional array of receiving talent in Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate, and top recruit Jeremiah Smith. With a highly-touted defense acquiring the services of former Alabama standout defensive back Caleb Downs, the Buckeyes have been regarded by some to be the best team in the country and with such language, one can expect to pay a premium to back Ohio State in situations like these. At the end of the day, Ohio State can easily come in under this number, literally.

When surveying the Buckeyes’ schedule, one will note that there are two games right off the bat that Ohio State can lose which gets us to the window: at Oregon and vs. Michigan. The Buckeyes have not gained a win against their arch-nemesis in three straight years and there is no reason to believe that the Wolverines cannot march into the Horseshoe and send Ohio State packing again. After all, standings and rankings go out in a match-up of that nature and Michigan will have the emotional intangibles with it because they have been the team that has upended many Ohio State seasons in recent years. Then there is the road trip to Eugene against the #3 Oregon Ducks. In what is a 50/50 proposition at best, the Buckeyes are tasked with coming away with a win in one of the most notoriously hostile environments in all of college football. Ohio State also has to go to a potentially undefeated Penn State, who is ranked in the top-10 in the preseason, and deal with a Whiteout in Happy Valley in Early November in what will be PSU’s biggest game of the season. We have listed three games that Ohio State can easily lose and they can only lose one all season for this ticket to be ripped up. In addition, Ohio State has a road trip to East Lansing against Michigan State in late September against a Spartans team that always plays up to elite competition, followed by a home game against an Iowa team that is renowned for its defense, will likely make a Top 25 appearance, and returns 19 starters from last year. The Hawks also have a knack for rolling up their sleeves with the big boys. Should Ohio State navigate its gauntlet and come away with only one loss, the Buckeyes can easily stub their toe against one of these two and that gives us another avenue to cash the ticket. Bottom line, there are multiple ways that Ohio State can falter against this posted number and that’s before we even mention the inevitable injuries that will occur during the season.

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More Futures to Consider

From the approach of value, the following futures are worth considering:

ACC Winner - Clemson +350

AAC - South Florida +600

Best value play in conference futures, the Bulls have a schedule that sets them up to vie for the conference and they are a very good team. We wouldn't be shocked if they were the 12 seed in the playoff.

Big 12 - Utah +300

They are the favorite and should be, as they are the model of consistency and figure to be a playoff team. We would not recommend betting against them to win the conference.

B1G - Oregon +200

C-USA - Liberty -210

We don’t lay this type of a price so it’s a pass but betting against Liberty is a risk we wouldn’t recommend taking. No point in discussing it at length, as Liberty is going to destroy everyone and likely will be the 12 seed even though we like USF a lot. The thing is, the Flames may not lose a game in 2024. USF will lose two at minimum. The Bulls can upset Tulane and even Miami when the ‘Canes come to town if Miami plays down to the level of their opponents, as they tend to do under Mario Cristobal.

MAC - Northern Illinois +650

The Huskies have continuity in coaching in Thomas Haddock (6th year). A former running backs coach for Minnesota, Wisconsin and the most Big Ten of all NFL teams (Baltimore), Hammock certainly lets his influences show. Jalen Macon is a great transfer addition, and Antario Brown is one of the best running backs in college football. Five of last year's top seven linemen return (as does 2022 starter Logan Zschernitz, injured last season). Quarterback Rocky Lombardi is gone, but (a) he didn't set the highest bar, and (b) both junior Ethan Hampton and Arkansas-Pine Bluff transfer Macon have experience, and (c) whoever wins the job will have a lovely mismatch weapon in 6-foot-5 Grayson Barnes (18.4 yards per catch) in the slot. The MAC is usually a crap shoot and NIU can win it.

Mountain West - Boise State +110.

No value, as they are the favorite but they are THE side in the Mountain West, so no point in even dabbling.

Sun Belt - Texas State +375

Another great value play. No one is talking about this team but they are listed as the second favorite behind the favorite son, Appalachian State. Texas State brought in an insane QB transfer from JMU, they have a 1,300-yard rushing back and a dangerous receiving corps. Plus, their pass rush, which is essential in the trigger-happy Sun Belt, is one of the best in the mid-majors. They loaded up on the transfer portal and have all their main guys back on defense. Head coach G.J. Kinne will be in his second year, which is another very positive element, as last year he got acclimated and had the Bobcats improving almost every week.

Kinne, 35, took over at Texas State last season after leading a prolific Incarnate Word attack to the FCS semifinals in his first year as a head coach. The Bobcats hadn't ranked better than triple digits in offensive SP+ (SP+ brings in returning production, recruiting and transfer portal successes, and recent team success (or lack thereof) into account to determine its rankings) and immediately surged to 37th under Kinne and coordinator Mack Leftwich. The Bobcats are good and figure to be a major player in the Sun Belt.

Sherwood

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Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

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