Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
Abilene Christian +42½ over Texas A&M
Kyle Field – College Station, TX
Streaming: SEC NETWORK (SECN)
12:00 PM EST. In our quest to find value, we will search high and low to find positions that fit our mantra and this one ticks several boxes. Outside of the FBS/FCS bias which innately renders one to not “go with the best of it” when backing a FBS side, there are several emotional intangibles in play here which make the Wildcats of ACU, an appealing underdog.
First and foremost, there is the national headline that broke this week that Texas A&M Head Coach Jimbo Fisher was relieved of his post and hit a Powerball jackpot while doing so, as his buy-out was an astounding 76 million dollars. Digging deeper into the mathematics behind his termination, it works out to Texas A&M paying Fisher roughly three million dollars per win over the course of his tenure, all the while never securing a SEC West title, let alone a New Year’s Six Bowl berth, or perhaps even a College Football Playoff berth like many had hoped he would do. Ultimately, the Jimbo Fisher experience was dubbed a massive failure and while such rhetoric would normally be cause for us to take a closer look at the Aggies, the opposite would hold true with respect to the surrounding circumstances and who Texas A&M is playing here.
The termination of a coach mid-season can send a program into disarray or it can galvanize a team if morale was driven low by the deposed leader. In the case of the Aggies, it is hard to determine where they stand heading into this affair, which makes them a great fade target. In terms of composite rankings. Texas A&M was named as one of the most talented rosters top-to-bottom in all of college football. Very simply, the Aggies bode elite talent but yielded lackluster results and the departure from Fisher drives this point home.
With this precept, some may already be looking for greener pastures when the transfer portal window opens on December 4th while others may be turning their attention to the NFL Draft in the coming weeks when opt-out season opens alongside bowl assignments. Others may be looking to get the three games on A&M’s schedule (bowl game included) over and done with and start new in 2024. There are several intangibles working against the Aggies here to coast through this game, not to mention a showdown with LSU on deck next week. For the Aggies, this is more of a glorified practice to get ready for next week’s tilt under new leadership.
For Abilene Christian, this will be their season finale and thus a trip to College Station to square off with the 12th Man is a bowl game unto itself.
Abilene Christian +42½ -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)