Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
Miami -105 over Louisville
Hard Rock Stadium – Miami, FL
12:00 PM EST. The prevailing narrative around this game is the Cardinals skulking around in the College Football Playoff picture. You see, if Louisville wins this game, gets past Kentucky in the Battle for the Keg of Nails, and stages an upset of Florida State in the ACC Championship, then the #10 ranked Cardinals may sneak into the College Football Playoff and be the TCU of 2023. The market has responded accordingly and invested in the “Little Engine That Could” sentiment surrounding the Ville. Additionally, on this particular occasion, Louisville looks even more appetizing as a top-10 team priced as a virtual pick-em against the unranked Hurricanes. While this may make the Cards look like easy money here, we see the price as a cause for alarm and a warning to all backing the Cardinals.
We can summarize the analysis by stating the role of a ranked favorite spotting a short-tag on the road to an unranked foe is one that is often accompanied by peril. By virtue of the many previous examples that have unfolded over the years where outfits found in similar circumstances are upended, we can use that as rationale to get behind the Canes here. However, we would be remiss to reinforce our position by reminding everyone that this same Louisville team that stands tall before the betting masses lost by 17 the road at a 1-4 Pitt team when it was undefeated after knocking off #10 Notre Dame, the week prior. Louisville has proven it is capable of playing down to the level of their opposition and faltering.
Incidentally, Miami by comparison to Pitt is a much tougher foe, as the Canes were ranked at one point this season before the campaign would derail thanks to one of the worst coaching malfunctions in college football history when Miami somehow lost to Georgia Tech when all the Hurricanes had to do was take a knee and leave with the W.
On the heels of a hard-fought loss to arch-rival Florida State with an ACC Championship out of reach despite Clemson having a down year, the Miami faithful would likely characterize this season as a failure given the fact this team had ambitious objectives and once was sitting pretty, undefeated, and ranked with everything in front of it before the Georgia Tech meltdown. Motivation for The U will not be a problem here, as they can make life miserable for Louisville, which is highly motivating and pressure free. The line says Miami and we couldn’t agree more.
Miami -105 (Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)