Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +119 BET365 +120 Sportsinteraction  +120 888Sport +120

Charlotte +120 over Rice

Jerry Richardson Stadium – Charlotte, NC

Streaming: ESPN +

2:00 PM EST. Line opened with Rice being a -1 point choice. Very quickly the “inefficient market” hammered the Owls to the price you see here. Going against the inefficient market is a strategy we highly endorse and it is in play here.

Incidentally, Rice is 7-3 against the spread (ATS) on the year, so they have tremendous market allure. As such, this is also one of those spots where if you do bet Rice, you would be doing so at a bad number, which is contrary to the practices of finding value.

Rice epitomizes the false favorite archetype. In their last two stints as a favorite, the Owls not only failed to cover but lost outright, one of which was on the road at USF and the other was at home as a 10-point favorite against a one-win UConn. It is worth noting Rice obliterated Texas Southern 59-7 on September 17th as a 35½-point favorite but TX Southern is a 3-7 FCS team. Rice has failed both times against FBS opposition this season as the chalk. Rice is also 1-6 in their last seven road games, which once again reinforces the premise that this team should not be trusted as a road favorite.

Meanwhile, Charlotte has quietly turned a corner.  They staged a 33-26 win at Tulsa two weeks ago which will retrospectively look more impressive, as the Golden Hurricane gave AAC power Tulane a scare last week in a two-point loss. Furthermore, Charlotte took historic conference power Memphis the distance at home last week in an overtime loss that the 49ers will feel like they should have won. Memphis had to score 10 unanswered in the final 5:25 of play to force overtime and escaped with a 44-38 win after Charlotte missed a field goal in the opening frame of overtime and the Tigers scored a touchdown on the ensuing possession. Barring a letdown after an emotional loss, Charlotte should win here. The market is nowhere close to catching up to this team, as Charlotte remains well off anyone’s radar. Wrong side favored for real.

Sherwood

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