Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +3 -104 BET365 +3 -110 Sportsinteraction +3 -110 888Sport +3 -110

Illinois +3 over Iowa

Kinnick Stadium – Iowa City, IA

Streaming: FS1

3:30 PM EST. The Fighting Illini come in with a 2-8 record against the spread (ATS) this year. That ATS record remains among the lower three on a list of 133 schools. This is a fickle market where very few want to get behind a team that rarely cashes. That makes the Illini a tough sell but we care not, as the oddsmakers have taken a position here and that is something that should never be ignored.

Iowa is ranked #16 in the College Football Playoff rankings while Illinois is unranked and have yet to gain bowl eligibility yet oddsmakers listed the Hawkeyes as a mere 3-point favorite. WTF is that?

Last week, Illinois survived overtime against a 3-6 Indiana team at home in Champaign to win 48-45. Illinois was a five point favorite and failed to cover once again. By contrast, Iowa perhaps had its best showing of the year when the Hawkeyes routed visiting Rutgers 22-0 as a one-point favorite. Iowa’s victory last week has left a lasting impression, as the Scarlet Knights have been widely-regarded as one of the most improved teams in college football in 2023; Iowa made mincemeat out of them.

Finally, there is also the “revenge angle” in play here, which is one of the most overplayed angles in all of sports and a very good way to lose a bet. Last year, in what was nothing short of a rock fight that was settled by field goals, Illinois defeated Iowa 9-6 in Champaign in a game that Iowa would without question feel that it should have won. After all, no team managed to get into the end zone once and Illinois simply got the victory because it kicked one more field goal than Iowa. Combining that narrative with Iowa needing to win to clinch an appearance in the B1G Championship should it win, we have a confluence of bankroll killer angles in play here. Revenge, must-win, recency bias and a small number at home is more than enticing to an unsuspecting market. If you think the sportsbooks are giving away money, bet on Iowa here. If you think it’s a big-time trap like us, you know what to do.

Sherwood

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