Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

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Holy Cross +12 over Army

Michie Stadium – West Point, NY

Streaming: CBS SportsNetwork (CBSSN)

12:00 PM EST. Last week, Army pulled off one of the biggest upsets in its program history. As a 17-point underdog the Black Knights defeated the undefeated #17 Air Force Falcons in comprehensive fashion. The United States Armed Forces Academy of West Point not only pulled off the upset but they absolutely drubbed the Falcons in a 23-3 blowout that saw The Fly Guys turn the ball over six times. The Army blowout of Air Force was the program’s first win against a ranked opponent in 51 years and the first time The Force was kept out of the end zone in six years. For anyone wondering who was the last team that Army beat who was ranked? Air Force (believe it or not). Who was the team in 2017 to keep Air Force out of the end zone? You wouldn’t believe us if we told you but that it was Army too. Thus, the proverb holds true: the more things change, the more things stay the same. However, our mission as handicappers is not wax philosophical but to find value. For Army, this

On paper, the Crusaders of Holy Cross appear to be some FCS tune-up opponent taking a short trip from Worcester, Massachusetts to West Point to gift Army another win. Considering that the Black Knights will need to win out to get a crack at a bowl, this is significant because the market is not only reacting to last week’s blockbuster but buying into the narrative of the triumph changing the trajectory of the campaign and Army being primed to make a run at the post-season. That said, Holy Cross is no slouch. This is a football team ranked within the top-five of the FCS Coaches Poll earlier this season and they nearly staged an upset of Boston College in Chestnut Hill in early September. The Crusaders will be looking at this contest as an opportunity, as a win against Army for a team like Holy Cross is nothing short of monumental. The best part is because of recency bias, an overreaction to one result, and FBS vs. FCS bias we get to back Holy Cross at an enhanced price. For Army, this game would be like the Super Bowl champion playing Carolina or Arizona the week after winning the Super Bowl. Don’t be surprised to see the Crusaders win outright.

Sherwood

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