Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
UCF +116 over Oklahoma State
FBC Mortgage Stadium – Orlando, FL
3:30 PM EST. The Cowboys have certainly come a long way since getting thrashed at home by South Alabama in mid-September. Oklahoma State’s resonating win last week sets this one up beautifully for the favorite to come crashing down. Always remember that these are kids and not pros.
As a six-point underdog, the Cowboys defeated arch-rival Oklahoma 27-24 in “Bedlam”, last week in Stillwater to win their fifth straight game in what was nothing short of an emotional victory for Oklahoma State. When the final buzzer went off, fans were jumping down two stories onto the field. The cameras were frantically searching for OSU players to get an interview. It was indeed “Bedlam” and we cannot overstate how big of a win that was, both physically and mentally.
The market is now doubling down on the Pokes. OSU has soared up in the College Football Playoff rankings up to #15 and they have emerged in the forefront to head to Dallas to play for the Big 12 Championship. On paper, Okie State should get to Dallas with little trouble, as their remaining conference schedule consists of Big 12 newcomers UCF, Houston, and BYU. Despite all of the aforementioned, the Cowboys are not being trusted to lay a field goal to the 4-5 Golden Knights. This sets off all sorts of alarm bells with us.
By contrast to Oklahoma State, who has two wins over teams presently ranked in the College Football Playoff poll, Central Florida owns two two-point wins in games it could have easily lost at Boise State and at Cincinnati last week; Central Florida has also defeated Kent State (who is 1-9 from the MAC) and Villanova (a FCS team); not exactly the who’s who of College Football. In their five losses, UCF lost three of those games by double-digits (one of which was against #19 Kansas which Oklahoma State dispatched over their present winning streak). Moreover, a failed two-point conversion separated UCF from taking Oklahoma to overtime while the Cowboys defeated the Sooners outright. With the analysis of these two common opponents included, we once again ask how on Earth is UCF priced in the range it is here?
To be quite frank, Oklahoma State looks too easy here but we would never assume that this is a gift from the bookmakers. Make no mistake, Oklahoma State has emerged as one of college football’s hottest teams and the oddsmakers are acutely aware of their heightened market presence. The fact that UCF is priced at an underdog-conducive number (+2½) suggests that the Cowboys are very likely to be caught basking in the glory of last week’s final chapter (for now) to the Bedlam series. UCF figures to come in highly focused and will be chomping at the bit to make a statement in its first year as a Big 12 member, as it has yet to achieve its first signature win. The pricing would suggest this is Central Florida’s moment. Knights outright is the call.
UCF +116 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.32)