Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK
West Virginia +13½ over Oklahoma
7:00 PM EST. The bubble-burst phenomenon has always been an extremely powerful concept, and these days the sport is delivered primarily in a way that defines that bubble. That leads most people -- players included -- to think that a second loss closes the door on any prize that's really worth having. That's not our take, but proof of its pervasiveness is in the profits.
Eight teams that were in the top 10 at the time took a second loss in Week 7 or later have combined for a 3-16-1 record against the number since taking that second loss, and one of those three against-the-spread covers was within the group. One of the newest members to this collective group is Oklahoma who took a second loss in Oklahoma State (Bedlam) last week. Laying big numbers to a have-not this week is not exactly the spot you should be looking for even if you're inclined to stand under the falling rock that is the "bubble-burst" club.
The Sooners saw their College Football Playoff hopes and perhaps their Big 12 hopes dashed. Just two weeks ago, OU was sitting undefeated and hovering near the top-five in the polls and now their bubble has essentially burst. It is very hard to determine where the Sooners’ collective head is at, considering how quickly their season got away from them.
The revenge angle is also in play here, which is a huge killer of bankrolls. Last year, West Virginia defeated Oklahoma 23-20 on a walk-off field goal in Morgantown to end a 15-year drought against the Sooners while also snapping a nine-game losing streak against since WVU joined the Big 12. OU led by a touchdown going into the fourth quarter but the Mountaineers rallied to steal the win. The narrative behind the loss nonetheless was that Oklahoma was in a transition year and now that they are much improved by comparison, they will get “revenge” for last year’s bitter defeat. There is tremendous danger that comes with playing into this angle especially considering West Virginia couldn’t catch Oklahoma at a better time. Oklahoma is very ripe to bring its “C-game” to this one while the underdog is very likely to bring its “A-Game”.
West Virginia +13½ -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)