Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
Michigan St. +135 over Nebraska
Spartan Stadium – East Lansing, MI
12:00 PM EST. Michigan State looks like a good fade, as they have lost six straight and have gone 1-4-1 against the number over that span. Despite their awful season and poor recents at the pay window, this is the shortest number they have been priced all year as an underdog. The Spartans were a 29-point favorite against FCS Richmond and a 14-point choice against Central Michigan in early September but that is ancient history and before they went on the skid. Michigan State is 2-7 against the spread in its last nine home games against FBS-level competition. Since we’re in the buy low business, Sparty checks more than a few boxes.
Meanwhile, hype has continued to build around Nebraska because they are presently in a four-way tie for the B1G West and therefore this is a “must-win” game for them That once again incorporates another angle to fade market sentiment. The must win angle is one of the biggest bankroll killers of all time. When you hear “must win” run for the hills. It is Michigan State that will be highly motivated to make life miserable for the ‘Huskers. Nebraska will come in motivated too but they have all the pressure in the world on them. At 2-6 with a road trip to Ohio State and a season finale against Penn State still left on the horizon, this is MSU’s “bowl game” because they’re not going to one.
Finally, Michigan State had a quarterback competition in practice this week to determine the starter. Katin Houser has started the last few games, but was replaced by Sam Leavitt in last week's loss to Minnesota. Attrition continues to build for the Spartans, as TE Maliq Carr and WR Tre Mosley are both questionable. During Michigan State's six-game losing streak, the Spartans are scoring 11.3 points per game. Nebraska's defense has allowed 14 points or less in six of their eight games this season. The Huskers' defense allowed just 195 total yards in last week's win over Purdue, which is remarkable because Nebraska's offense turned the ball over four times and continued to hand the Boilermakers extra possessions.
Yes folks, there are 101 reasons to bet Nebraska and zero reasons to get behind the Spartans based on recent performances and everything else mentioned above but before you pull the trigger on Nebraska, you must ask yourself why did oddsmakers post such an enticing number to get behind Nebraska? Why oh why oh why? Betting Nebraska has a seriously foul odor to it. Spartans outright is the bet.
Michigan St. +135 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.70)