Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
Iowa St -3 over Kansas
Michigan Stadium – Ann Arbor, MI
7:00 PM ET. Last week the Jayhawks achieved what was described as a “generational win” when it defeated the undefeated #6 Oklahoma Sooners for the first time since 1997 in Lawrence by a score of 38-33. The victory was nothing short of a spectacle, as the Jayhawks held off OU on a final heave to the end zone that culminated in the Kansas faithful storming the field and taking down the goalposts. With the triumph, Kansas found itself ranked #21 in the inaugural College Football Playoff poll. With the triumph comes an enormous risk for a hangover, which the linemakers have certainly taken into account here, as the ranked Jayhawks are taking back a short tag to the unranked Cyclones who will be curating hosting duties in Ames. That prompts us to take a closer look at Iowa State.
Iowa State could be described as having a Jekyll and Hyde-type season. The Cyclones lost in Norman to the very same Oklahoma team that KU beat last week by a score of 50-20. The market will place emphasis on that but it was nothing that ISU defeated #22 Oklahoma State in Ames in September while the Jayhawks fell to the Cowboys in Stillwater by a score of 39-32 in October.
Iowa State also lost to Iowa where they trailed by as much as 17 and were defeated in a road trip to Athens, Ohio by the Ohio Bobcats of the Mid-American Conference. It is perhaps the latter that may make the market baffled as to why Iowa State is favored here, without the rankings even being considered. Nevertheless, this same Iowa State team is also 4-1 in the Big 12 and it's no fluke. Matt Campbell is a great coach and Iowa State still has unfinished business.
The pricing in this game would reflect that the anticipation is that the iteration of ISU that defeated Oklahoma State will be taking the field in Ames. Kansas, meanwhile, has lost both its games on the road this year (they also were rolled in Texas when they were ranked in September) and are all the more prone to come in flat, basking in the glory of last week’s breakthrough. Swallow the points and think back to July and August where there were questions about whether Iowa State was going to be able to field a competitive team thanks to all of the smoke surrounding the Iowa collegiate betting scandal. Matt Campbell was able to hold the roster together and the Cyclones are coming. Redshirt freshman QB Rocco Becht has taken command of the offense while Kansas QB Jalon Daniels is not expected to return for this one. Kansas is ripe as hell to get rolled.
Iowa St -3 -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)