Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.
Purdue +32½ over Michigan
Michigan Stadium – Ann Arbor, MI
7:30 PM EST. Last week, the inefficient market heavily backed Purdue when it was on the road at Nebraska. The steam that poured in on the Boilermakers rendered Purdue to go from a three-point pup to a -1½-point choice at kick-off in Lincoln. The Cornhuskers would smash the Boilermakers 31-14, where Nebraska built up a 24-0 lead heading into the fourth quarter. Purchasers of a Purdue ticket knew they were holding a losing wager and they all left with a bitter taste in their mouth. That’s compounded by the Boilers dropping five of their last six overall against the number and by going 2-8 against the spread over their last 10 outings dating back to 2022. That makes Purdue a hard sell and it’s something we’re always on the lookout for. That being, teams that nobody wants to get behind because their stock is so low and the points are so inflated.
With respect to the Wolverines, there are several reasons that it would be ill-advised to lay such a price with them here. The most prominent rationale of course surrounds the ongoing investigation into Michigan football with allegations of sign-stealing. While no definitive conclusions have been reached up to this point, the constant chatter will undoubtedly serve as something that can easily consume the Wolverines. After all, everything has been said and heard ranging from “the death penalty” and Coach Jim Harbaugh being terminated to a recusal of said accusations. With such speculation wafting through Ann Arbor and a lesser opponent coming to town, the Wolverines are all the more susceptible to taking their eye off the ball here and bringing its C-game. The cherry on top is that Michigan has a date in Happy Valley next week against Penn State so there is also a massive lookahead aspect to this game. Should Michigan clobber Purdue, the Wolverines will pull their starters to protect exposing them to an injury, as the looming showdown has College Football Playoff and B1G implications. When we factor in the backdoor potential from a team that can score there are several ways for the Boilermakers to come in under the number and we are on it.
Purdue +32½ -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)