Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +199 BET365  +210   Sportsinteraction  +185 888Sport  +185

Texas St +210 over Troy

Bobcat Stadium – San Marcos, TX

Streaming: ESPN+

7:00 PM EST. The tale of the tape here is brand prestige: both teams are 5-2 but Troy has a pedigree as the defending Sun Belt Champion. Texas State’s stock is also diminished by the fact they narrowly escaped UL Monroe (18.5-point underdog) at home in a 21-20 nail-biter two weeks ago in San Marcos. Troy, by comparison, has won their last four in a row and covered its last three.

Troy also lost at the defending Big 12 Champion when they were ranked #15 in the country and lost by two points to James Madison, who is presently ranked #25 and undefeated. The market will look kindly on Troy’s results compared to Texas State who lost at both Louisiana and at UTSA who are shadows of their former selves.

Let’s not lose sight of Texas State beating Baylor in Waco to kick off the 2023 season as a 27-point underdog. That seems like ancient history now after the Bobcats lost to ULL and followed it up with a near-miss against ULM two weeks ago. Another key selling point on the Trojans is that Troy and Texas State have met eight times and the Trojans have won all eight meetings. That’s another useless trend that means absolutely jack, except to pick sellers, who try to pimp that a game from 10 years ago has an impact on this one.

Texas State has had an extra week to prepare for this game and this will be one of the bigger games ever in San Marcos. A win here is not only impactful because it is against the defending Sun Belt Champion but it also puts Texas State in the driver seat for the Sun Belt West, as it gives the Bobcats essentially a “two-game” edge over Troy with the tie-break via head-to-head. A different team will be taking the field against Troy compared to the one that needed to rally from 11 down to defeat UL-Monroe two weeks ago. If you’re on board taking back +6½-points is a decent option but we’re going for it all by taking the home pooch to win outright.

Sherwood

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